Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Within The Range of Probabilities

I know how present conditions seem like the definition of uncertainty, but, as a friendly reminder, here's what we said back on September 29th (just off of this year's peak) about the then coming weeks:
"...at best, likely to see a notable pickup in volatility. At worst, a pullback in the mid-single to low-double-digit % range." 
While the S&P 500 being down 11.9% since I made that statement makes reality the worst of "the worst" of my then expectations, clearly what we're experiencing was within the range of probabilities at the time, yet still within the context of an ongoing bull market. 

And, absolutely -- the bottoming signs I've been illustrating notwithstanding -- it could get worse before it gets better, given the market's present propensity to react to virtually each and every headline.

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