Monday, December 31, 2018

On This Morning's Bounce -- And -- Climbing a Wall of Worry??

On the one hand, this morning's bounce makes sense, and the headlines are for sure accurately assessing the cause; The President's Saturday tweet that U.S./China talks are going very well. On the other, a mere ("mere" in light of how hugely positive an end to the trade war would be for economic [and market] prospects going forward) 200-point pop in the Dow, it then meandering above and below that level for the first hour of trading (up 150 as I type), speaks to how legitimately suspicious market players are about the likelihood of a deal in 60 days, and, I suspect, speaks also to concerns over Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what he might hint this Friday -- not to mention to the uncertainty of other political wranglings galore.

Plus, there's no question a little post traumatic stress exists after the bloodletting of the correction we presently find ourselves in. I happen to know folks who were praying for a correction just a few months ago; and -- now that their wish has come true -- their ready pile of cash remains tucked safely away in their money market account. Clearly, the idea of a correction and the reality of one can provoke literally opposite emotions.

All in all, frankly, worry is a good thing. I mean, there truly is something to that old Wall Street adage that a bull market is healthiest when it "climbs a wall of worry"; which has been my experience over the past 3 decades.

In essence, market sentiment is sour coming into the new year, and that's probably a good thing...

P.S. Expect more huge volatility in both directions over the next few weeks...


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