Monday, October 29, 2018

When will it end, and is this a good time to buy?

My reply to an emailed question this morning states our current view in a nutshell. 

My friend inquired as to when I thought this downdraft would end, and if this is a good time to buy.

Here's my reply:

I'm sure you noticed that the Dow was up nearly 300 points this morning... that was until news hit that Trump wants to slap more tariffs on China if he's not happy with talks coming late November. Imagine what happens when we end this trade war nonsense! 
Our positioning right now is consistent with what we're seeing in the economic data. Which, in a nutshell, remains strong. Typically bear markets come with recessions, while corrections are normal during expansions. Right now, the data dictates that we view this as a correction in an ongoing bull market. Now, if/when the data begins telling a different story, we'll be assuming a defensive posture. History suggests that we'll likely see better opportunities (higher prices) to get defensive into than we see presently. 
At the moment we're not rushing in, but we're certainly not heading for the exits either...

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