Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Morning Note: The Curse and The Key

Keeping this morning's note brief; this week's important main message to follow a little later today.

Earnings reporting season is underway, and 3 of the big banks' (Goldman, JPM and Wells) were out this morning. Ironically, while all 3 blew away expectations, only Goldman is, at this point, in serious rally mode. JPM is actually trading lower...

With regard to earnings reports, I literally can't recall a quarter when the majority didn't beat analysts' expectations. Yes, make no mistake, that's managed phenomena... So take that overall earnings beat % with your proverbial grain of salt. Revenue trends, however, are to be taken seriously...

Asian equities traded strong overnight, with only 2 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe's leaning green as well this morning, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow trading higher thus far.

U.S. major averages are a bit mixed (but mostly green) to start the session: Dow up 197 points (0.59%), SP500 up 0.21, P500 Equal Weight up 0.61%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.20%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.11%, Russell 2000 up 1.85%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 0.96%. VXN (Nasdaq 100 i.v.) is up 1.99%.

Oil futures are up 2.34%, gold's down 0.53%, silver's down 0.04%, copper futures are up 1.66% and the ag complex is up 1.03%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.07%.

Led by oil services, metals miners, MP (rare earth minerals), energy and ALB (lithium) -- but dragged a bit by solar, gold, consumer staples, AT&T and tech -- our core mix is up 0.54% to start the day. 

The curse with regard to science, and investing:

"We have all been too quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them. And if we don’t examine how we make these mistakes, we will keep making them. This stagnation can go on for years."
The key:
"The key is doubt. Scientists can feel just as strongly as anyone else that they know The Truth. But they know they must set that feeling aside and replace it with finely measured degrees of doubt—doubt that can be reduced (although never to zero) by better evidence from better studies."
--Tetlock, Philip E.; Gardner, Dan. Superforecasting

Have a great day!

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