Thursday, May 5, 2022

Morning Note: Not A Good Look....

Suffice to say that while yesterday's rally was very impressive, the underlying picture -- technically speaking -- remains concerning. 

Per yesterday's video, the 60-minute chart showed upside promise, and despite a bearish price pattern on the daily chart, our momentum indicators read bullish there as well. But when we got to the weekly and monthly analyses, well... not a good look...

Recall last Thursday's monster rally that saw the S&P up 2.47%.... only to be followed by Friday's 3.63% drubbing. Well, yesterday's massive 2.99% rally is being met this morning (so far) with a 1.89% take back. 

Not predicting anything here, but yesterday's rally halted right on the spot where the bulls and bears have been duking it out of late -- right where of late the bears have been holding the line...

Stay tuned... 

Asian equities, again, saw mostly red overnight, with 8 of 14 open (2 were shuttered) markets we track closing lower.

While Europe's seeing mostly green so far this morning, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

US major averages look to be giving back a chunk of yesterday's gains: Dow down 506 points (1.49%), SP500 down 1.89%, SP500 Equal Weight down 1.42%, Nasdaq 100 down 2.96%, Nasdaq Comp down 2.86%, Russell 2000 down 1.99%.

The VIX sits at 27.34, up 7.51%.

Oil futures are up 2.84%, gold's up 0.39%, silver's down 0.82%, copper futures are down 0.32% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.32%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.86%.

Among our 37 core positions (excluding cash and short-term bond ETF), only 5 -- Albemarle, carbon credits, gold, ag futures and energy stocks -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by semiconductor stocks, solar stocks, Latin American equities, metals miners and tech stocks.

"The extended leverage in the global economy is the biggest impediment to the normalisation of interest rates, and of the economy more widely..."
--Goodhart, C. A. E.. The Great Demographic Reversal 

Have a great day!

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