Friday, May 20, 2022

Morning Note and Weekly Economic Snapshot

China's central bank stepped in last night with a cut to its 5-year prime loan rate that was larger than the market expected -- that jibes with our view that all policy stops will be pulled out during the remainder of the year as authorities attempt to stimulate the economy out of what has become quite the mess. That would bode well for our foreign equity and commodity exposures going forward.

Well, unless we see a 3% rally in the S&P 500 today this'll be its 7th straight week in the red. So that snapback rally we were sniffing out on the chart didn't (or hasn't yet) materialize(d). The concerning reports from bellwethers Walmart and Target seemed to do a real number on what appeared to be a bottleneck of potential buying pressure ready to be released. That said, beyond that very short-term setup, and a potential counter-trend bounce, the technicals were (and remain) uncompelling ahead of this week's news.

As you'll note below, however, stocks are attempting to at least close the week on a positive note.

We'll jump to the numbers here and then leave you with our weekly economic snapshot video (link below).

Have a great weekend!

Asian equities rallied overnight, with 15 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's bigly green as well so far this morning, with 18 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

US stocks are higher to start the session: Dow up 209 points (0.67%), SP500 up 0.81%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.65%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.96%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.92%, Russell 2000 up 0.70%.

The VIX sits at 28.56, up 2.69%.

Oil futures are up 0.84%, gold's down 0.16%, silver's down 0.57%, copper futures are up 0.62% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.45%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up 0.26%.

Among our 37 core positions (excluding cash and short-term bond ETF), 32 -- led by Latin American equities, energy stocks, Nokia, Asia-Pac equities and tech stocks -- are in the green so far this morning. This morning's losers so far are carbon credits, ag futures, silver gold and industrial stocks.

Economic Snapshot

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


  1. Thanks for the great video! I can't agree more that we are seeing a slow down in the economy. Fed Powell had an interview with WSJ recently. He said the labor market is strong and thinks that it is a timing issue for supply and demand. He is waiting for more data before the next meeting. My two (2) cent says that we are not in a recession and we will be alright in the long run. There are a lot of great companies out there with strong balance sheets and strong future plans that are worth investing.

  2. My pleasure Sam, and we do agree on present (but always subject to change) conditions... And, yes, there are/will be buying opportunities before this is all said and done

    1. Although I'd add that there's more to inflation going forward than supply and demand issues. Be careful with interpretations of Fed speak, it's useful in terms of gauging your expectations around policy, not so with regard to macro reality.