Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Uh Oh! The Tariffs Have Been Announced! But Wait!

Uh oh, the tariffs have been announced (well, the announcement of the coming announcement of the tariffs has been announced)! But wait, after freezing in place while details were dispensed, the Dow rallied to up 150 (+117 now). So, tariffs good? No, not at all, but at least round one appears to be substantially muted relative to the rhetoric going in.

Oddly, the headline reads:
Dow rises 100 points ahead of expected Fed rate hike
I'd say the Fed has absolutely nothing to do with this momentary rally.

No doubt it's the second paragraph below, which implies welcomed (by the market) caution -- at least for the moment (the market's known for delayed reactions) -- as the President attempts to make good on previous promises:

The White House plans to announce a package of tariffs Thursday penalizing China for intellectual property theft, a senior White House official and a person briefed on the plan said.
The measures unveiled Thursday will not include restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S. or student visas. President Donald Trump will be briefed again in two weeks to consider more actions based on the effects of the first phase, the sources said. The president worries the measures could hit American universities too hard, according to the sources.
That last sentence suggests that perhaps the President is beginning to listen to reason, or perhaps -- as we've suggested he might -- to the market.

Now, the market awaits China's response...

Please keep in mind, you clients out there, none of this -- at this juncture -- is actionable from our perspective. Our analysis (both fundamental and technical) continues to suggest that we're very much in the midst of an ongoing bull market in stocks. 

This stuff, for now, simply explains the volatility. Trust me, if it wasn't this stuff it'd be something else...

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