Thursday, March 8, 2018

Let's Talk Economics, Not Politics!

Here's the headline:
(Bloomberg) -- China’s exports surged and its trade surplus unexpectedly widened in February, illustrating the lopsided nature of global commerce that Donald Trump is preparing to introduce protectionist measures against. Overall exports rose 44.5 percent in February from a year earlier and those to the U.S. surged 46.1 percent, customs data showed...
Here's one possible spin:
Statistics out of China, as of this morning, scream that tariffs are absolutely critical to protecting our steel and aluminum industries!!
Here's another:
Statistics out of China, as of this morning, tell us what we already know; that the U.S. consumer is in fantastic financial shape! Yes folks, while our exports are up as well, the fact that our purchases of basic stuff from China has lately grown at a rate faster than their purchases of stuff from us proves that we're much better off. And what perfect timing given our agenda. Some of those dollars you all are sending out into the world -- because we're preserving your freedom to do so -- will come right back to our treasury bond auctions as foreign investors/entities help us fund our recent tax cuts as well as the infrastructure plan we will soon be passing. Another amazing development is the huge global surplus of metals. That (cheap prices) means we'll get so much more for your hard-earned tax dollars as we rebuild our nations bridges, airports and highways. What a huge win for us!!!!
By the way clients: We've upped our U.S. consumer discretionary target this year, as we agree that the U.S. consumer is in good shape, plus, the sector is trending quite well within our technical model. Oh, and here are the top 20 holdings within the ETF we use:
Amazon, Home Depot, Comcast, Disney, Netflix, McDonald's, Bookings (formerly Priceline), Nike, Starbucks, Time Warner, Lowe's, Charter Communication, TJX, GM, Marriott, Ford, Twenty-First Century Fox, Target.
So how many Americans do you suppose these organizations employ? And will these companies be better or worse off if U.S. consumers are forced to pay more for all things steel and aluminum?

Friends, this is not politics, this is economics. And there are some bad economists among us!
"The bad economist sees only what immediately strikes the eye; the good economist also looks beyond. The bad economist sees only the direct consequences of a proposed course; the good economist looks also at the longer and indirect consequences. The bad economist sees only what the effect of a given policy has been or will be on one particular group; the good economist inquires also what the effect of the policy will be on all groups.”   Henry Hazlitt

1 comment:

  1. Congress is trying to prevent Trump from imposing these tariffs. Since the Republicans don't want them they just may be successful.