Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Why Media Headlines are Virtually Worthless

Now, it is true that the Dow is down over 100 points as I type. And it is true that retail sales unexpectedly dropped last month (something we'll dig into and apply to our model). However, does the message implied by the following headline paint an accurate picture of this morning's move in the Dow?
Dow Falls 100 Points After Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop
Well, I wouldn't necessarily look to the Dow to see the market impact of the consumer potentially pulling back; nope, I'd look for a reaction in our consumer discretionary ETF, which is presently trading at 105.79, after opening this morning at 105.84. Hmm... I don't know about you, but I wouldn't call a five-cent move in a hundred dollar stock a reaction worth getting excited about. In fact, I'm looking at it again and, shoot, it's now up 3 cents at 105.87. The Dow on the other hand is down 119 points.

So, if we have to come up with an excuse, which we of course don't by the way, here's a headline that makes much more sense:
China’s path to tariff retribution could begin with Boeing
  • Boeing has announced China will buy about $1 trillion of aircraft over the next 20 years.
  • Aircraft is a top U.S. export to China.
  • If President Donald Trump imposes a $60 billion tariff on Chinese goods, China can slap back against U.S. companies, such as Boeing.
  • Boeing has contributed 24 percent of the gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since December 2016.
Among the 30 members of the Dow, Boeing (not a retail stock mind you) has by far the biggest influence on the index. And, as I type, it's down $11.09/share, or 3.27%.

That would be your excuse, should you need one...

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