This Morning's Log Entry

As you've noticed, I've gotten into the habit of often sharing my internal log entries herein. Feedback from clients suggests that there's a demand for these high-frequency daily musings. While, given that demand, I'll continue to offer up commentary that I believe will help readers keep the short-term in perspective, a word of caution: My sharing, as I do this morning, of a short-term hypothesis is absolutely not to be considered a prediction nor trading advice to our readers! Make no mistake, the secret to long-term success for 99% of investors, is, in our view, to understand the macro and to catch the major, long-term market moves, while not attempting to time the short-term fluctuations. 

Think of these log entries, as well as the videos, as simply my attempts to help you understand what's going on in the markets and, most importantly, to help you keep your heads about you amid the constant media onslaught. 


3/31/19 Sunday Morning

China’s manufacturing PMI came in well above expectations yesterday (services beat as well, but the world is focused primarily on manuf), which offers evidence that the global slowdown may be bottoming. Other global data, while very mixed, has me leaning toward that hypothesis as well.

Chart of the Day

To help you appreciate our focus herein of late on trade negotiations, and Brexit -- and to set your expectations for lots of volatility over the next few weeks (in both directions) -- here's a look at Thursday's (White House econ adviser L. Kudlow's comment) and Friday's (Teresa May's Brexit plan voted down, again) action in the U.S. equity market:

Green arrows highlight strong gaps higher at the opens (btw, tough to write with a mouse).... click to enlarge...

Quotes of the Day

While I've disagreed plenty with Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, over the years, I strongly believe (as I've preached herein and in client meetings an nauseam) that he's spot on when it comes to the economic and political consequences of not soon settling the trade war with China.

Positive Headline and Quote of the Day

While the market gave back some on the news highlighted below this morning, make no mistake, if Mr. Qaurles is correct in his assessment, this is unequivocally good news:

This Morning's Log Entry -- And -- This Week’s Message: Mixed Picture

Chinese stocks screamed higher last night on news that trade talks with the U.S. were constructive, as China pledged greater than previously-proposed measures related to IP theft and forced technology transfer.

This Morning's Log Entry

The market is basically directionless at the moment, with the S&P trading within a range from 2780 to 2820.

Brief Commentary on General Conditions, Present Risks, and the Current Market Setup (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: