Morning Note: The "Need to Understand" Credit and Money Creation, and Destruction...

In this weekend's video commentary we assessed the present technical setup for, among other things, the S&P 500 Index.

Macro Update and a Look at Stocks and Precious Metals (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Careful With That Spear! -- And -- "The Rise" of Robin Hood

As January comes to a close it's clear that the winds have changed around equity markets. Last year was utterly void of any serious volatility, with the largest S&P 500 drawdown being ~5%.

As I type the S&P is already down 9.8% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite (whose hugely weak breadth we've been flagging for months) is down 15.2% ytd.

Stocks and Dollar Update (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Bonus Info: Julien Brigden is without question one of today's smartest macro thinkers. And, I swear, I don't say that because his current long-term thesis closely matches ours 😎. 

For those of you who like getting into the macro weeds, last week's MoneyWeek podcast featuring Julien is outstanding:  https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/604377/moneyweek-podcast-julian-brigden-markets-are-at-a-huge-inflexion-point

Morning Note: Risk Happens Fast! -- And -- The Case for Copper

If, yesterday, I woke (at the end of the trading session) from a six-month coma, and the first thing I did was check the day's stock market internals, I'd probably say "oh, I must've nodded off for a minute, nothing new going on."

Morning Note: Market's Looking for a Soft Fed Statement

Positive earnings news from Microsoft and Texas Instruments, along with an apparent feel that the Fed isn't about to go all in against inflation has US stocks -- particularly the ones that have been getting creamed of late -- rallying hard this morning. 

Quote of the Day: Oh Those Expectations...

The simplest quotes are typically the best.

"The issue of expecting higher returns when past returns have been good seems to be endemic in our industry and seems to lead people to take greater risk when they should be taking less risk."

--Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates