Morning Note: Key Highlights and The Ills of Intervention

Key highlights from our latest messaging:

Yesterday:

...according to the technicals, odds favor a near-term rally in equities, according to the fundamentals, continued caution is very warranted.

Morning Note: Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update

Our last 2 video commentaries pretty well cover our view of the short and long-term scheme of things... I.e., according to the technicals, odds favor a near-term rally in equities, according to the fundamentals, continued caution is very warranted.

In case you missed them:

Technicals Point To A Near-Term Rally, But, Ultimately.....

 

The Consumer, Market Signals, Earnings Call Insights and Yes, We're "Late in the Game"

And here's your weekly sector, region and asset class results update:

The Consumer, Market Signals, Earnings Call Insights and Yes, We're "Late in the Game" (video)

 Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Technicals Point To A Near-Term Rally, But, Ultimately....... (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Ambiguity Remains

While Q3 GDP came in better than expectations, its underlying inflation gauge came in softer than expected... Combine the latter with higher than anticipated weekly unemployment claims (particularly continuing claims, as I highlighted in last Friday's economic update), and a clearly dovish ECB monetary policy statement, and you get a knee jerk market reaction which entirely comports with our short-term view (bad economic news = short-term good news for stocks).

Here's SP500 futures action so far this morning -- it's presently10 minutes before the open (the green arrow points to the moment the GDP and jobless claims numbers were released):

Magnificence Questioned, AI Angst, Stocks, Yields, the Dollar, What's Inspiring Gold, and What Good Investors Do (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Beyond the Time Being

Long-term treasuries rallied yesterday, seemingly sparked by Bill Ackman’s assertion that the world is simply too risky to be short bonds right here… While, per below, his comments did inspire some buying, I have to believe that, at these levels, investors are poised to pounce on treasuries on any sign of economic weakness going forward… And that’s despite the high level of issuance to come.

Ackman tweeted his comments at 6:45am.

Here's TLT (long-term treasuries) yesterday, I circled 6:45am: