Monday, October 30, 2023

Morning Note: Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update

Our last 2 video commentaries pretty well cover our view of the short and long-term scheme of things... I.e., according to the technicals, odds favor a near-term rally in equities, according to the fundamentals, continued caution is very warranted.

In case you missed them:

Technicals Point To A Near-Term Rally, But, Ultimately.....


The Consumer, Market Signals, Earnings Call Insights and Yes, We're "Late in the Game"

And here's your weekly sector, region and asset class results update:

Asian stocks leaned green overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's bouncing so far this morning, with 17 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

Amid relatively poor breadth (40% of S&P members in the red), US equity averages are mostly higher to start the session: Dow by 254 points (0.78%), SP500 up 0.51%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.01%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.53%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.59%, Russell 2000 up 0.02%.

As for Friday’s session, US equity averages traded mixed: Dow down 1.1%, SP500 down 0.5%, SP500 Equal Weight down 1.2%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.5%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.4%, Russell 2000 down 1.2%.

This morning the VIX sits at 20.72.

Oil futures are down 2.86%, nat gas futures are down 4.16%, gold's down 0.50%, silver's up 0.53%, copper futures are up 0.43% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.23%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yields up) and the dollar is down 0.26%.

Among our 32 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and money market funds), 21 -- led by AT&T, XLC (communications stocks), EWW (Mexico equities), FEZ (Eurozone equities) and VWO (emerging mkt equities) -- are in the green so far this morning... The losers are being led lower by VNM (Vietnam equities), Range Resources, TLT (long-term treasuries), GLD (gold) and DBA (ag futures).

"’s ability to anticipate and deal well with the future depends on one’s understanding of the cause/effect relationships that make things change, and one’s ability to understand these cause/effect relationships comes from studying how they have changed in the past."

--Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order 

Have a great day!

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