Friday, October 6, 2023

Some History, and What the Future Setup Has In Store (video)

As you'll gather from this morning's video commentary (recorded last evening), yours truly was anticipating a "soft" jobs number this morning, and, as bad news is, for the moment, good news, a rallying stock market to go with it.

Well, scratch that!  The number came in literally double the consensus estimate, and an astounding 100k above the most aggressive upside prediction... And, to top it off, the prior 2 months were revised up by 119k.

Now, that said, there was some softness that, when "the market" digests it, just might mitigate a bit of the premarket selloff we're seeing across equities and bonds... That softness came in what matters most in terms of inflation, average hourly earnings... They were up 0.2% month-on-month; consensus estimate had it at 0.3%.

Interestingly, gold is up .16% (silver's up 1.4%) premarket, despite a notable jump in real yields -- perhaps precious metals traders are already sniffing out that "softness" (although the morning's very young).

Anyways, here's your end of week market analysis... In this one I take you way beyond the latest action... We'll tour the past few market cycles, what worked, what didn't, and I scratch the surface on how one money manger (us) is presently addressing near-term dynamics, and what we're anticipating beyond the present cycle.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

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