Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Economic Sentiment Waning, No Top Yet, However...., and Conflicting Narratives All Priced In!

Global Economic Sentiment Waning

After a multi-month stretch of positive global sentiment, per Sentix, it’s presently rolling back over across the board, which jibes with the latest trends in global cyclical currencies, as well as our go-forward economic outlook:



The Ultimate Top Is Yet To Be Seen, However Caution Is More Than Warranted Right Here


Like ours, John Hussman's work points to extreme equity market valuations alongside generally unfavorable internals… Also like us, he nevertheless is not calling for the ultimate market top right here, just warning that the risk in the data says we could be getting close…

Here’s what turned out to be a most prescient, yet also telling in terms of how historically-negative signals can persist amid record high stock prices, quote from just before the tech bubble burst:

Friday, July 19, 2024

Overboughtness + Extreme Sentiment = Trouble, Some Housing Data, Shipping, Retail Sales, yada yada (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Late-Cycle Dynamics, Retail Sales Surprise, AI Priced for Perfection, And, Again, the Yen

Small Caps Rally!!!

The action over the past week in the equity market has been extraordinary… Well, okay, I’ll just say it’s been unusual (at least seemingly, until you scroll further), to put it mildly.


It certainly bolsters the bull’s narrative that this historically-bifurcated market (the 10 biggest SP500 stocks doing ~80% of the year-to-date heavy lifting, the remainder utterly languishing) will be remedied via the rest of the market playing catch up.

Friday, July 12, 2024

Inflation Cools/Markets React, Stretched Sentiment, Fed-Cut Market Implications, Small Caps & the Yen (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Weekly Highlights: The Fed, Small Cap Prospects, The Yen, And a Critical Macro Thesis


Fed's Getting Worried

From Powell’s comments to congress today – it appears as though the Fed is beginning to fret recession risk right here:

Monday, July 8, 2024

Friday, July 5, 2024

A Suspect Service Sector, Signals In the Jobs Report, September Rate Cut Likely, Market Implications, yada yada (video)

Dear Clients, here's another very important update on overall conditions to take in when you have a few minutes!

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.