Quote of the Day: Not yet ready to get "all in constructive."

As you've no doubt gathered from the recent messaging herein and, especially, on the videos, we see odds favoring (but never guaranteeing, mind you) yet another leg lower for the current bear market.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Correction, at the 7:54 mark I said "oversold", meant "overbought."

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: How to View Inflation Right Here

Dear Reader,

Your inbox is about to get a reprieve, as I'll be on vacation next week. Now, while much of my time will be spent floating down Montana's Madison River with two close friends (one I've introduced to subscribers via my most-popular ever blog post, which, ironically, is not about markets), I can't guarantee, should the spirit, and the markets, move me, that I won't pop in a time or two (I'll effort not to) with something I feel compelled to express.

Here's the link to a 2020 post where I copied and pasted that popular 2010 post -- if you're interested in reading something touchy-feely this morning... 

And here's this morning's note:

This week has been virtually all about inflation. As we suggested (i.e., the obvious), inflation was clearly peaking, leaving only the question of speed and magnitude of the coming deceleration. Keep in mind PWA is firmly in the structurally-higher inflation camp going forward. 

Charts of the Day: Again, Hmm....

Here's yesterday's "Charts of the Day:"

Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....

Morning Note: Doesn't Pass the Smell Test

Last night's internal market log entry: 

8/10/2022

The SP500 has seen an impressive ramp back to 4,200, on really strong breadth, no less. One might conclude that this is the makings of a new bull market. 

Charts of the Day

Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....

Morning Note: Inflation, and Our Messaging, Highlights

July's CPI confirms that inflation remains at consumer-crushing levels. However, for a kneejerk market (SP500 futures up 1.75% as I type [45 minutes before the open]), it's all about expectations, and this morning's report came in a bit lower than consensus: