Morning Note: Can't go there yet -- And -- Concentrated Cash

In yesterday's economic update we featured a handful of inputs to our index that as of yet don't rhyme with the recession-imminent chorus. This morning's durable goods numbers add another to that list:

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

If, among other things, market action -- across equities (breadth readings in particular), commodities and fixed income -- is a fair harbinger of things to come, our mid-cycle slowdown thesis is simply wrong. I.e., markets of late — and much of the punditry who stake their claims of predictive prowess on them — are signaling recession is on the near-term horizon, if not already here. 

The fact that our model hasn’t yet placed us there of course doesn’t mean that it won’t very soon. But in that we’re not the least bit interested in being see-we-told-you-so heroes, we’ll simply wait till our work says simply that near-term recession odds trump continued expansion odds. The last time it did was in August 2019; recession followed 5 months later. 

So why doesn’t it now?

Here you go:

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Stock Market Snapshot, the Fed, Goldilocks, Non-Linear Inflation and the Latin America Setup -- all in 13 minutes (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Political Career Risk Rising -- And -- The Really Good News

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses congress today and tomorrow with his team's current assessment of general conditions and their stance on go-forward monetary policy. 

While, given their all-out commitment (well rhetorically at least) to bringing inflation to its proverbial knees, one wouldn't expect much in the way of equity-market-friendly commentary right here from the Fed-Head.

But, then again, there's the likes of the following 4 charts:

Quote of the Season

The quote below expresses what I cherish as one of the most important lessons I've learned from my decades-long experience (most-humbling at times) as an investor, and advisor:

"...it’s important not to conflate easy heuristics or ideological bias with market outcomes as they frequently diverge sharply."

--Bespoke Investment Group 

Keep this one in mind as your head spins over the coming political season... 

Morning Note: Bear Market Rally Prospects

In yesterday's video commentary I offered a brief technical snapshot of the S&P 500 where the 60-minute chart pointed to the potential for short-term pop higher, plus a number of market indicators/setups that supported the notion that perhaps a "bear market rally" was in the near-term offing.

In case you missed it, here are a few key snippets from the market log I drew from in the video:

Bear Market Rally Prospects (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.