Monday, January 30, 2023
Morning Note: UH OH!! (maybe)
Here's from our internal chat thread over the weekend:
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Quote of the Day: Yes, 0DTE Options are a Big Deal Right Here!
"Right now, there’s a bubble in zero days to expiration (0DTE) options. North of 50% of the options traded every day expire within 6 ½ hours of the market open. Now we’re dealing with that, who’s bulling the tape to get S&P 4,000 to print, for instance. The volume of 0DTE call buying is changing market behavior – with a small number of dealers forced to hedge which suppresses volatility. But this dealer hedging works both ways and that’s why you’ve seen these wild moves in markets. You need to be careful and have a process for knowing the trend. When things unwind, they unwind quickly."
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Economic Update: Corporate Earnings Shoe to Drop (video)
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Friday, January 27, 2023
Stock Market Snapshot (video)
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Morning Note: Under the GDP Surface
My response to my good friend Sam's comment on yesterday's blog post (he mentioned the Q4 2022 economy and the impressive resilience of the equity market of late):
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Morning Note: Key Highlights
Here are some key highlights from our latest messaging:
Yesterday:
...like we keep saying with regard to corporate earnings:
"On balance, the LEI and other recession indicators are likely to continue sending a recessionary signal in the coming months. Meanwhile, aggregate earnings forecasts remain too optimistic and have room to be revised lower."Hence, the chart we featured in yesterday's note (LEI/CEI ratio in white, SP500 earnings in orange):
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Stock Market Snapshot (video)
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: