Sunday, December 10, 2023
2023 Year-End Letter, Part 2: The Economy and the Stock Market
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Market Update: Seasonality vs The Technicals, plus Yields, The Dollar and Gold (video)
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
2023 Year-End Letter, Part 1: If A Blizzard Hits, Characteristics of The Best Portfolio Managers, and An Invaluable, Timely, Quote-Fest
As you (clients) know, I enjoy using analogies to explain our view of market and economic general conditions... In the past I've associated our macro analysis with the flight path of an eagle affixed with electrodes, etc., that allow us to monitor its vital functions as it glides across blue skies, sores to high altitudes, and flaps its way through the storms that occasionally cross its path.
Fishing, basketball and ice skating have also inspired some storytelling that has helped me drive home how we approach the task of preserving, protecting and growing our clients' wealth in a manner that has them satisfying their objectives while, ideally, feeling comfortable amid the inevitable ups and downs delivered by world markets.
Monday, December 4, 2023
Morning Note: Equity Market Conditions Remain Challenged
Here's the intro to our internal monthly equity market conditions analysis, including our technical view of the current US dollar setup:
11/30/2023 PWA EQUITY MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX (EMCI): -41.67 (-16.67 from 10/31/2023)
SP500 Index November 2023, +8.92%:
SP500 Equal Weight Index November 2023, +8.87%:
November turned out to be the best month of 2023.
While the EMCI score was still net negative, it had risen an unusually large 33 points by the star of the month.
Saturday, December 2, 2023
Economic Update: Classic Late Cycle, Copper & China, Bullish Sector Signal, Stocks, Sentiment, Gold (video)
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Friday, December 1, 2023
Novembers Past, Santa Headwinds, yada yada (video)
The following quote (and video), along with our own models, speaks to our stubbornness around remaining hedged right here:
"Stock investors should hope for the best but prepare for the worst when it comes to gauging the outlook of the US economy. Soft-landing optimists have a case to make, yet the historical evidence is overwhelmingly bearish when it comes to the end of previous Fed hiking cycles. Equities face steep losses if the economy sees a “softish” or hard landing.
In the 11 times when the Fed has tightened monetary policy to combat inflation since 1965, stocks escaped largely unscathed only about three times. The other occurrences saw average peak-to-trough losses of nearly 30% in the years after interest rates peaked."
-- Tatiana Darie (Bloomberg)
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Morning Note: Pricing Power and the Price of Labor
FYI, for the next few weeks (to year end), I'll be a bit less active, and less voluminous, here on the blog, as I'll be devoting the time normally spent organizing, then articulating, my thoughts for the daily message to what, as usual, will be a several part year-end message (delivered over the final two weeks of the year)..
So, for this morning, just the following graph (H/T BCA Research), followed by my brief assessment, and some critical investment wisdom from the late great Charlie Munger: