Thursday, December 2, 2021

Morning Note: We've a Long Ways to Go -- And -- Allowing Clarity to Emerge

Here are a couple of key tidbits from yesterday's release of the Fed's Beige Book (an assessment of conditions across Fed districts):   emphasis mine...

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Charts of the Day: Media Needs An Excuse...

Just sayin, media needs an excuse, and it matters mostly short-term and at the margins.

Headline:

Morning Note: Sudden Sanguineness, Or..?. And a Look at the Charts

Whether the positive market action this morning implies sudden sanguineness around the new variant, or comports with our view that -- change of tone aside -- the Fed has backed itself into a corner that really doesn't allow it to come out swinging on inflation, or the fact that on average Decembers are very good (simple seasonality), this morning's bounce in equities makes some sense.

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Quote of the Day: Flirting With Frankness

While jawboning will I suspect remain a key tool in the Fed's box, J. Powell flirting with frankness (read honesty) this morning is interesting:
"Generally, the higher prices we’re seeing are related to the supply and demand imbalances that can be traced directly back to the pandemic." 

"But it’s also the case that pricing increases have spread much more broadly in the recent few months."

"...it's time to retire the word "transitory" regarding inflation." 

One might conclude that making such a declaration amid rising COVID uncertainty means the Fed is actually willing to let a little air out of the equity market bubble. 

Time will tell...  

Morning Note: Fed Constraints and Govt Ambitions Make for an Anemic Inflation Response -- And -- Bullish Ag -- And -- It Takes More Than Just Money

Equity futures last evening quickly moved from nicely red to notably green upon Moderna's CEO telling the Financial Times, with regard to the existing vaccine efficacy related to the latest COVID variant:

Monday, November 29, 2021

Morning Note: "We can only hope" -- And -- A Microcosm

As I type, the Dow's shaved a 300-point opening rally by two-thirds, while metals and materials (and their related companies) and global equities, while generally higher, lag notably... US consumer staples, industrial and financial stocks are actually in the red so far this morning.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Macro Update, Teeing Up Our Year-End Letter -- And -- Finding 'Investing' Comfort in an Uncomfortable World (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.