Quotes of the Day “Why Most Advice Is Useless” And "The Road Less Traveled"

In yesterday‘s video, upon making mention of an uber-confident money manager podcast guest I listen to on Friday, I emphasized how humbling financial markets are.

I am reminded this morning of said manager and of the importance of remaining humble as I read Farah Smiley’s thought-provoking book, The End of Wisdom: Why Most Advice is Useless:

An excerpt:

When Timing Is Everything (brief video)

Dear Clients, this is a brief one I'd like all of you to take in when you have a few minutes.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Making Sense of Higher Rates, The Eerie Silence on Margin Risk, Conagra's Concerns, Etc. (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Who'll Take the Tariff Hit? Leading Data Concerns, and What's "The Market" Thinking Right Here? (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Another Look At What Could Go Right, But -- Per the Charts, Conditions, Valuations, Etc. -- Don't Bet the Farm (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

The Case For and Against a Rate Cut, Divergent Stocks, Dollar Doldrums, Gold Tanking, Yields Not Cooperating (video)

Clients, please sure to take this one in when you have a few minutes!

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

So What Gives With the Dollar?

Conventional wisdom, and popular opinion, say that interest rate differentials drive a currency more so than virtually any other factor. 

While what immediately follows supports that notion, it’s, indeed, like today, not always the case.

Our base case:

The setup for the US dollar, for the next several years, lends very high odds to a declining trend.