Friday, January 23, 2026

Market Response to World Affairs (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Engrained Thinking And A Wile E. Coyote Metals Market (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Quote and Chart of the Day

I sympathize with Jamie Dimon’s macro view right here:
“The US economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation and the Fed’s recent monetary policy. However, as usual, we remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards - including from complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices.”

Monday, January 12, 2026

Quote of the Day: Picking Up "Nickels In Front of A Steamroller"

As I've expressed of late, there's some cause to be bullish -- for the first half of this year in particular... But, then again, as I've also stressed, hedging is more than warranted right here as well -- particularly, since, per the following, investors are largely not doing so.

Bloomberg's Ed Harrison is, as usual, making sense this morning:

Friday, January 9, 2026

Lots To Play Out (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Friday, January 2, 2026

Forward Thinking, and the Beauty of Hedging (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

PWA 2025 Year-End Letter, Part 3: All Else Is Never Equal

I promised that in Part 3 we would drill down into the economy, and we will... But first, I need to reemphasize that while the data below deserve close attention, the sheer scale of -- and wealth concentration within -- the U.S. stock market demands that it remains a central focus of policymakers...