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“The winners of the old technology are never the winners of the new technology.”
"We are driving a car, looking at the rear-vision mirror. The environment in which you believe yourself to exist is always a past one, it isn't the one you're actually in."And that, in reality, waves and cycles are as inevitable in economies and markets as they are in nature:
“…there is no such manifestation as half a wave. We do not find in nature crests without troughs and troughs without crests.”And that the longer the cycle, the more the crowd loses sight of this unalterable reality:
“The slower the wave goes the more difficult it is to see that the crest and the trough are inseparable.”I.e.,
“Trough implies crest just as crest implies trough.”Thus, call it human nature, recency bias, what have you, it's easy for markets to ultimately do what they do best.
Dear Clients,
This is the finale to our 2024 year-end message. Please definitely take this one in. Feel free to skip to the summary video at the end. Thanks so much!!
Before we get to the dollar, I'd like to touch on what I'll call the "December Mess" of a market for stocks by quoting derivatives market specialist, and co-host of the uber-popular Market Huddle Podcast, Patrick Ceresna, as he charted the US equity market sector-by-sector during last week's episode:
In this year's year-end message Part 1 we touched on three investing rules to live by.
Essentially:
1. Control risk
2. Buy value
3. Be patient
So, while controlling risk may be accomplished in a number of ways, it's generally-speaking pretty easy, but it ain't free.
If we're talking diversification, cost comes by way of missing out on concentrated returns when a particular asset class, or, say, a small group of stocks realize outsized upside relative to the rest (à la recently, in record fashion!)... If we're talking insuring against massive declines in a given asset class, security or group of securities, there's the options premium we pay.
As for #2, buying value is easy enough, when you can find it, and of course you have to know how to measure it.
#3, patience, depending on who you are, can far and away be the most difficult rule to follow! Particularly when you see a given tech stock or, say, crypto currency, rocketing -- without you -- to the proverbial moon... Or, on the other hand, when it feels like the world is melting down all around you, and panic begins to grip your decision making process.
Ideally, if we satisfy #1 well enough, we can keep panic-driven reactions at bay... As they, along with greed-driven decisions, are inevitably the worst decisions investors make!
Here, in Part 3, we're going to focus primarily on rule # 2, buying value.
