Chart of the Day

Here's an old-school-thinking chart (that we've been updating for many years) that illustrates the utter lack of breadth of the last few year advance in the US major large cap equity indices...  I.e., small cap and transportation stocks are essentially flat since late-2021, while the Dow and the S&P have gained notably... As you trace it back you can see how such set ups don't often end well.

The Impacting Narrative, Its Ramifications and The Technical Setup (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

A Rally Right on Cue, Although Not Much Has Changed (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

"Mag 7 Dominance is Over," Chips Rolling Over, and How to Live With Volatility (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Quite the Departure

This entry to our internal market log will serve nicely as this week's mid-week message.

3/17/2025

Like I said in Thursday’s video, the US equity market was due for an oversold bounce, which we saw on Friday… That was largely a massive short-squeeze (sentiment was in the gutter), which of course included options dealers covering their short-put hedges big time.

Technically-speaking, despite the big thrust down through the 200-dma, it would be highly unusual to not see a retest, perhaps several (i.e., Friday’s rally could easily bleed through to the next few days/weeks), even if this is the beginning of something more severe to the downside… The 50-DMA slope has now turned decidedly bearish:

High Yield Signal, Small Businesses Boosting Prices While Investing Less, and A Quick Look at the Technicals (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Chart of the Day: "Historic Shift"

This from Bespoke makes sense, jibes with our thesis, and partially explains our core allocation’s year-to-date resilience: