Key Highlights From Our Latest Log Entries

5/21/2025

Consistent with our view that the recent rise in yields has everything to do with the proposed federal spending package, the 10yr treasury yield just popped to above 4.5%, and the 30-year to 5.01% on news that an agreement was reached to raise the state and local tax deduction to 40%.

Again, fiscal stimulus, and expanding the budget deficit, at this juncture, virtually has to be viewed as inflationary... Like I keep saying, while clearly they sense urgency as economic weakness brews under the surface, pumping the gas before the hard data roll over will likely prove to be yet more problematic for the bond market, and ultimately equities (at these valuations).

What's Driving Rates? And What Does it Portend?

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Technicals Improving, Competing CEO Narratives, Tariff Ramifications, etc... (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

The Fed's Conundrum, Long Term Momentum and Macro Warning (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Certain Uncertainty (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Softer Soft Data and Highlighting Headline Driven Markets (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Stinky Breadth

Just a quick follow up to last week's "Curb Your Enthusiasm" post.

Days like these can be dangerous for unsuspecting investors... As, per the below, those who only see the headline prints on the US major averages could be thinking all's well and we're back in business.