As you've no doubt gathered from the recent messaging herein and, especially, on the videos, we see odds favoring (but never guaranteeing, mind you) yet another leg lower for the current bear market.
Saturday, August 13, 2022
Friday, August 12, 2022
Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)
Correction, at the 7:54 mark I said "oversold", meant "overbought."
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Morning Note: How to View Inflation Right Here
This week has been virtually all about inflation. As we suggested (i.e., the obvious), inflation was clearly peaking, leaving only the question of speed and magnitude of the coming deceleration. Keep in mind PWA is firmly in the structurally-higher inflation camp going forward.
Thursday, August 11, 2022
Charts of the Day: Again, Hmm....
Here's yesterday's "Charts of the Day:"
Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....
Morning Note: Doesn't Pass the Smell Test
8/10/2022
The SP500 has seen an impressive ramp back to 4,200, on really strong breadth, no less. One might conclude that this is the makings of a new bull market.
Wednesday, August 10, 2022
Charts of the Day
Interesting, while equities are partying this morning (as we expected, at least initially, if inflation came in under expectations), long-term treasury prices (first chart), after an initial surge, seem to have a different take (they will drop when long-term inflation expectations increase), as do inflation swap spreads (they will rise when inflation expectations increase [2, 5 and 10-yr featured])... Hmm....