Morning Note: Key Highlights

Here are some key highlights from our latest messaging:

Yesterday:

...like we keep saying with regard to corporate earnings: 

"On balance, the LEI and other recession indicators are likely to continue sending a recessionary signal in the coming months. Meanwhile, aggregate earnings forecasts remain too optimistic and have room to be revised lower."

Hence, the chart we featured in yesterday's note (LEI/CEI ratio in white, SP500 earnings in orange):

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: "Earnings Forecasts Remain Too Optimistic"

Folks at BCA Research seem to agree with our near-term thesis. We touched on the below indicators yesterday (LEI), and on Monday (yield curve):

Morning Note: Uninspiring Risk/Reward

So, if there's one graph (other than the one for our own index) that illustrates what has us not yet believing this year's rally in equities, it's this one (the Leading Economic Indicator/Coincident Economic Indicator Ratio):

Morning Note: A Tad Bit Complacent, We Presume...

So, while our proprietary index (-33) says recession looms,

and the 2yr treasury yield (orange) rolls below the fed funds rate (white) -- signaling rate cuts on the horizon (as recession looms),

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:  

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: No Love From the Fed

Yesterday's action very much jibed with our near-term thesis for the equity market... I.e., data releases (save for mortgage apps) were resoundingly weak (recessionary even), while Fed speakers -- even the doves -- reiterated that the tightening cycle still has a ways to run:    emphasis mine...