"Mag 7 Dominance is Over," Chips Rolling Over, and How to Live With Volatility (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Quite the Departure

This entry to our internal market log will serve nicely as this week's mid-week message.

3/17/2025

Like I said in Thursday’s video, the US equity market was due for an oversold bounce, which we saw on Friday… That was largely a massive short-squeeze (sentiment was in the gutter), which of course included options dealers covering their short-put hedges big time.

Technically-speaking, despite the big thrust down through the 200-dma, it would be highly unusual to not see a retest, perhaps several (i.e., Friday’s rally could easily bleed through to the next few days/weeks), even if this is the beginning of something more severe to the downside… The 50-DMA slope has now turned decidedly bearish:

High Yield Signal, Small Businesses Boosting Prices While Investing Less, and A Quick Look at the Technicals (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Chart of the Day: "Historic Shift"

This from Bespoke makes sense, jibes with our thesis, and partially explains our core allocation’s year-to-date resilience:

New EU Zeitgeist, Stocks Not the Admin's Worry Just Yet, A Tactical Shift Impacting the Dollar, etc (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Europe's Improving Setup (Save For the Tariff-Threat), Volatility, Uncertainty, Today's Technical Setup, yada yada (video)

Note: I recorded the video below on Tuesday 3/4, 30 minutes before the equity market close... I mentioned that commentary from the treasury secretary suggested that the stock market was not an immediate concern with regard to tariff policy(ies), and that, while I believe there is a market-induced pain-point that may inspire a different, more market-friendly narrative, it appears that we're not near there yet.

Well, as I type, 3:05pm PT, the following news headline hit the wires, and markets are liking it after hours:

"Commerce's Lutnick Suggests Possible Compromise on Trump Tariffs"

Although this is at odds with what the President said just a little earlier on Tuesday about hitting Canada even harder after Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion worth of US goods.

Time will tell...

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

AI Concerns, Tariff Uncertainty, Record Wealth Effect, and Some Technical Flags (video)

Dear Clients, please be sure and take this one in when you have a few minutes.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.