SP500, Nasdaq 100, Apple, MSFT, Gold and Ag Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Yesterday's video "7 Indicators That Warrant Caution Right Here" in case you missed it:

7 Indicators That Warrant Caution Right Here (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:  

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Scenarios

In the following, economist Diane Swonk does a nice job of pondering present-day economic possibilities:

"Been thinking about scenarios that could erupt as a result of the period of high volatility and uncertainty we are in.

Humbled by the vast number of outcomes in a chaotic cycle.

More I read, the more I am humbled. Some scenarios float to the top: 

Economic, Stocks, Gold and Ag Snapshot (video)

Correction/clarification: At the 12:20 to 12:58 mark, where I mention moving from a labor friendly regime to a capital friendly regime, I actually meant the other way around; moving from a capital friendly regime to a labor friendly regime. Where I mention 130% debt to GDP ratio for the US, I was referring only to government debt (which, by the way, was ~116% of GDP in the early/mid 40s).

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:  

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

S&P, Dollar, Nasdaq 100, Apple and Microsoft Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:  

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Careful What You Wish For!

As I mentioned yesterday, our PWA Index presently scores a recessionary -33.33; with 20% of its inputs scoring positive, 53% negative and 27% neutral. 

One of its current negative influencers is the Sectors-to-SP500 ratio -- each week we take a 30-day lookback at how each major sector is fairing against the broader market.

Here's last week's look (a below-100 score denotes the sector underperforming the S&P 500):

Morning Note: An Air of Desperation

Watching from a distance the past few days (on vacation), I found myself thinking how desperate "the market" (equity market actors) seems these days... And while indeed early-stage 2023 has seen its share of downs (recently wiping out all of January's impressive gains), it's, frankly, the ups that, for me anyway, have that air of desperation (fear of missing out) to them.