Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Key Highlights

Here are some selected highlights of key global economic and market data, signals, trends, etc., from our internal log over the past few days.

Be sure and read start to finish, as we cover lots of important ground over the course of a week.

Clients, if you'd like more color on any of the below, or anything else that went on in global markets/economics this past week (even if it's not featured below, there's a good chance I commented on it internally), please feel free to reach out.


Last Friday 5/24/24:

Per some of our recent tactical adjustments, we’re anticipating a decoupling among global economies… Europe, in spots, for example, had been in recession while the US continued to chug right along… Recent data suggest that Europe has bottomed, while we believe the US – despite yesterday’s positive PMIs – is in the process of peaking, if it hasn’t already peaked.

So, question being, can the rest of the world (we’ve seen some stabilization in China, for example, as well) sustain a new growth cycle, if/when the US slows markedly?

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Signals From the Labor Mkt, Commodities, Breadth, Sentiment and So On -- And a Note on Nvidia (video)

Clients, please be sure and take this one in!

Thanks! Marty 😎

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Key Highlights


Here are some selected highlights of key global economic and market data, signals, trends, etc., from our internal log over the past few days. 

Be sure and read start to finish, as we cover lots of important ground over the course of a week.

Clients, if you'd like more color on any of the below, or anything else that went on in global markets/economics this past week (even if it's not featured below, there's a good chance I commented on it internally), please feel free to reach out.


Last Wednesday 5/15

CPI came in a bit softer than expected, core pretty much in line… Markets, bonds in particular, are, as expected (on soft data), rallying on the news… 

Weaker than expected retail sales for April didn’t hurt markets either – as weak news is good news presently (all eyes on the Fed); which, alas, tends to be the making of greater market pain if indeed weak news ultimately becomes recession news.

A September rate cut is now priced into fed funds futures, if data continue to weaken that’ll get moved up in a hurry; right now there’s a 30% chance of a cut in July.

Europe, whose equities we’ve been adding to lately, has a June rate cut presently priced in.


Saturday, May 18, 2024

"Happy Talk", CPI, Copper -- And -- Yields & The Dollar (technicals) Are THE Tell On Equities Right Here (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Key Highlights

Here are some selected highlights of key global economic and market data, signals, trends, etc., from our internal log over the past few days.

Clients, if you'd like more color on any of the below, or anything else that went on in global markets/economics this past week (even if it's not featured below, there's a good chance I commented on it internally), please feel free to reach out.


Last Wednesday 5/8


BCA’s US Equity Strategy Team’s remarkably accurate model is the most bearish it’s been since I’ve been following it… Chief strategist Peter Berezin, however, sees potential near-term upside should data begin to weaken soon, as the market will likely rally on the notion that the Fed will, thus, become measurably accommodative... 
Which is my current base case as well.



Last Wednesday 5/8


Despite it being down slightly since we put on our small starter position, I’m liking the longer-term setup for the yen right here.

My view from the get-go is far more basic than the rantings of those who see a currency crisis in the making… I.e., it’s simply a matter of macro cycle timing and interest rate differentials.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Consumer Credit, Cat Sales, Shipping Costs, Earnings Comments, Stocks, Yields, the Dollar and Gold (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Key Highlights: Near-Term Setup, Value Elsewhere, Labor Market Signals, Waning Business Sentiment, Etc...

Here are some selected highlights of key global economic and market data, signals, trends, etc., from our internal log over the past few days.

Clients, if you'd like more color on any of the below, or anything else that went on in global markets/economics this past week (even if it's not featured below, there's a good chance I commented on it internally), please feel free to reach out.


Last Thursday 5/2
Generally speaking, it’s pretty clear that the market (equity mkt in particular) is pricing in a soft landing and strong go-forward corporate earnings growth.

Given that there are sufficient leading indicators to cause concern, the soft landing thesis continues to stand on shaky ground, which of course conflicts with that forward earnings bullishness.

Ironically, while my stated concern ultimately leads to consequently-lower equity prices, along the way to a harder-than-priced-in-landing, a notable rally in equities (classic “blowoff top” perhaps) is very much on the cards – as the economy/inflation cools.

Bottom line, the likely equity market transition for the no-soft-landing scenario sees stocks flat to down as long as inflation remains elevated… Then stocks rally as the economy and, thus, inflation cools… Then stocks finally rollover when recession becomes reality… Then a fundamentally-sound buying opportunity presents itself.