Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Key Highlights

Dear Clients, despite the Nasdaq sitting at, and the S&P 500 near, all time highs, this week's highlights from our internal log will not inspire confidence in the go-forward setup for stocks... Which, by the way, in no way means that the next bear market is imminent... It simply means that the risk is historically high right here, and that liquidity, diversification, and, in our view, hedging here and there with options is these days more than warranted.

In our candid view, prudent long-term investing is all about knowing when, and when not, to add risk... Suffice to say that today's overall setup is not the sort that you find at the early stages of a sustainable equity bull market... One could argue quite the opposite, in fact.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Charts of the Day: "Abysmal Breadth"

Dear clients, if you're wondering what keeps us cautious on equities right here, among other things, the following is, let's say, compelling.

From this morning's log entry:

Friday, June 7, 2024

A Head Scratcher Jobs Report, Mixed Signals Galore, and a Quick Look at Key Markets (video)

Note, in this week’s video I mentioned gold’s Friday decline and suggested that it was likely a reaction to the May employment report… And while the notable selloff in treasuries perhaps lends credence to that view, I had missed the fact that China’s central bank announced last night that it did not add gold to its reserves in May… Not doubt that was a not-small contributor to Friday’s action.


Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Out Next Week, A Timely Quote and Some Key Highlights

Dear Clients, there'll be no written post next week, as I'll be on my annual Montana excursion, which once again has me offering up the link to an old blogpost that I believe has our all time highest hit rate.

Ironically, it has nothing to do with markets, so only take it in if you're in the mood for something touchy-feely.  

Here's the link to the 2020 version (disregard the days off mentioned, this time it's Tuesday - Saturday):  

http://blog.pwa.net/2020/09/gods-greatest-work.html


Now before we get to the highlights I wanted to share what I believe may ultimately turn out to be a timely quote.

At the end of Larry Montgomery's latest book, How to Listen When Markets Speak, he offered up the following message, which to a not-small degree concurs with our longer-term go-forward view:

Friday, May 31, 2024

Econ Update, Commodity Check, Our Near-Term Equity Mkt View vs The Technicals, Company Comments, yada yada... (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Key Highlights

Here are some selected highlights of key global economic and market data, signals, trends, etc., from our internal log over the past few days.

Be sure and read start to finish, as we cover lots of important ground over the course of a week.

Clients, if you'd like more color on any of the below, or anything else that went on in global markets/economics this past week (even if it's not featured below, there's a good chance I commented on it internally), please feel free to reach out.


Last Friday 5/24/24:

Per some of our recent tactical adjustments, we’re anticipating a decoupling among global economies… Europe, in spots, for example, had been in recession while the US continued to chug right along… Recent data suggest that Europe has bottomed, while we believe the US – despite yesterday’s positive PMIs – is in the process of peaking, if it hasn’t already peaked.

So, question being, can the rest of the world (we’ve seen some stabilization in China, for example, as well) sustain a new growth cycle, if/when the US slows markedly?

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Signals From the Labor Mkt, Commodities, Breadth, Sentiment and So On -- And a Note on Nvidia (video)

Clients, please be sure and take this one in!

Thanks! Marty 😎

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.