Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Highlights

A few highlights from our latest notes:

This jibes with recent evidence that the consumer is slowing down:


Friday, February 14, 2025

How the Market Sees the Tariff Threat, A Slow Going Fed, and Vibrating Stocks (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Charts, and Thoughts, of the Day

This morning’s reaction to January’s hot CPI number speaks to the somewhat precarious spot markets find themselves in.


As I type:

Friday, February 7, 2025

Quoting Buffett and Considering Scenarios (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Thought and Chart of the Week: Something's Going To Give

It’s unusual to see gold, stocks and the dollar experience such positive correlation (have since last October)... Gold is catching a bid on geopolitical angst and central bank buying… Stocks are riding momentum and bullish sentiment… The dollar is up on high relative yields and geopolitical angst.

I.e., Something’s going to give:

Friday, January 31, 2025

It's Not About the Fed Right Here! (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:


Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

The "AI Meltdown"

I was thinking this morning that if I didn't know what I think I know about markets, and my experience captured merely the past few months, I'd be convinced that whatever happens on a given day can be expected to be more-often-than-not reversed the very next.

Yesterday, for example, we watched the tech sector suffer -- what I'm sure too many investors deemed to be -- a meltdown; taking the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 down with it... Interestingly, despite somewhat ugly action across our commodities exposures, we didn't feel it much, as places like consumer staples and healthcare saw sharp rallies... Our non-US exposure held up okay (relative to US tech) as well...