Sunday, January 26, 2014

Next week...

The reason the market's been so volatile of late is obvious, it's because I'll be on vacation next week :(. And since I won't be around to comment on the goings on---to help you maintain a healthy long-term perspective on short-term developments---I thought I'd turn you over to some of today's regularly published pundits. Here are this morning's headlines followed, in italics, by my pithy perspectifying.

Stocks May Fall Again as Fed Stays Course
Stocks will fall again, eventually, regardless of what the Fed does. And by the way let's hope to hell they do stay the course (that would be continuing to cut back QE), so the economy can correct whatever imbalances have resulted from all that "stimulus".

Volatility is Your Friend
Okay. That's one of those statements that I could do so much with I don't even know where to begin.

Corrections Fears Are Overblown: Buy the Dip
No doubt the advice of a fully invested chap who's been predicting great things for 2014.

Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Healthy Correction
Bullish, Bearish, Piggish, Shmiggish---a correction here regardless of the indicators would be healthy.

Stock Market Shock Dictates Continued Avoidance of Passive Long Positions
Okay, then you should try to time the stock market. Yeah, that'll work.

Weakness Likely to Spill Over Into This Week, Though Short-Term Bottom Near
No doubt the words of a man who woke up this morning with a hunch... Well, shoot, I'd love to stick with that snide remark, but it's not fair to the pundit. His prediction comes from his in-depth analysis of where the market and its various sectors sit in relation to their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, momentum indicators, market breadth and the action in foreign markets. While I'm not big on technical analysis, I, being an advisor to long-term investors, do track the 200 day MAs for the various sectors we hold. And, yes, that is one of the indicators suggesting that the long-term trend remains intact. Although things can change in a hurry.

Welcome Janet Yellen, now don't screw it up!
When I read this title I had the thought that these are the words of a man who doesn't understand that no one, even the FOMC, can safely steer an economy. But I was pleasantly surprised to read that he and I are on the same page when it comes to tapering QE. Here's his final paragraph:
I'd love to see Yellen continue the taper to invite further buying opportunities. This way, the next time the market continues another leg up over 16,000, the move will be au naturale and healthy, just like our recovering domestic economy.

Markets May Tank on Emerging Market Chaos
The market will tank now and again on any of an infinite array of possibilities. The secret to sanity is to maintain an asset mix that is consistent with your temperament (meaning one that won't incite you into panicky selling during the inevitable tanking) and your time horizon (the younger you are---the further away you are from spending your portfolio---the more volatility you can justify).

So there you have it. Actually, there you have eight "it"s. Just pick the one you like (the last one, the last one) and stick with it. You're then free to focus on other things as the market meanders its way into the next week, the next month, the next year, etc.

Have a great week!

No comments:

Post a Comment