Despite all of the headwinds, although the S&P remains only marginally higher than it was all the way back to January ’18, the market held up remarkable well in Q3. Hmm....
Amid the swirling narratives I believe it’s quite simple; traders are for now choosing to ignore the under-the-surface cracks forming in the market’s fundamental foundation in anticipation of a trade deal with China. Yep, it’s that simple!
Questions therefore being:
1. Will there be a deal?
2. Will it be substantive?
3. Will it be a buy-the-news event?
4. Will it be a sell-the-news event?
My answers (given all present trends/developments):
3. Yes, initially
4. Yes, ultimately