Morning Note: The "Need to Understand" Credit and Money Creation, and Destruction...

In this weekend's video commentary we assessed the present technical setup for, among other things, the S&P 500 Index.

Macro Update and a Look at Stocks and Precious Metals (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Careful With That Spear! -- And -- "The Rise" of Robin Hood

As January comes to a close it's clear that the winds have changed around equity markets. Last year was utterly void of any serious volatility, with the largest S&P 500 drawdown being ~5%.

As I type the S&P is already down 9.8% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite (whose hugely weak breadth we've been flagging for months) is down 15.2% ytd.

Stocks and Dollar Update (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Bonus Info: Julien Brigden is without question one of today's smartest macro thinkers. And, I swear, I don't say that because his current long-term thesis closely matches ours 😎. 

For those of you who like getting into the macro weeds, last week's MoneyWeek podcast featuring Julien is outstanding:  https://moneyweek.com/investments/investment-strategy/604377/moneyweek-podcast-julian-brigden-markets-are-at-a-huge-inflexion-point

Morning Note: Risk Happens Fast! -- And -- The Case for Copper

If, yesterday, I woke (at the end of the trading session) from a six-month coma, and the first thing I did was check the day's stock market internals, I'd probably say "oh, I must've nodded off for a minute, nothing new going on."

Morning Note: Market's Looking for a Soft Fed Statement

Positive earnings news from Microsoft and Texas Instruments, along with an apparent feel that the Fed isn't about to go all in against inflation has US stocks -- particularly the ones that have been getting creamed of late -- rallying hard this morning. 

Quote of the Day: Oh Those Expectations...

The simplest quotes are typically the best.

"The issue of expecting higher returns when past returns have been good seems to be endemic in our industry and seems to lead people to take greater risk when they should be taking less risk."

--Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates

Morning Note: Hail Marys

Stock market fans were given quite the treat yesterday! Just when it appeared that their favorite team (SP500) appeared to have no chance of coming back from a monster deficit, lo and behold, a Hail Mary!

Morning Note: Pressure

Geopolitical (Russia), political (WH pressure on the Fed to quell inflation) and inflation (the Fed) pressures have global equities selling off notably to start the week. 

Actually, the selloff extends beyond just equity markets, as commodities (save for gold, nat gas and wheat) are taking it on the chin this morning as well.

Macro Update: The Latest on Housing, a Few Other Things, and a Quick Technical Look at Stocks (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: The Reality of "Free Money" Buying "Money-Losing Companies"

Well, so much for the short-term technicals! Yesterday morning I dared to present a chart that showed what have been reliable setups on the 60-minute timeframe and suggested that the morning's impressive rally might make it to the end of the session.

Nope!

Morning Note: The Age Old Problem

Clearly, as US equities have staged their latest, albeit minor, descent, the rip-sellers have overwhelmed the dip-buyers. Early in today's session US equities happen to be ripping higher. We'll see if this one holds. 

Considering the volume, the breadth (all, among the major sectors, but energy, materials and banks are on the rise) and the look of the 60-minute chart (see below), I'm thinking the S&P has a shot at finishing in the green. But of course we won't be holding our breaths on short-term market dynamics.

Morning Note: Mid-Terms are Tough

The following from BCA Research emphasizes a few assertions we've been making lately:

Morning Note: Ill-informed Solace on the Horizon

The meat of this morning's note comes from our internal market log:

1/16/2022

The year has begun with quite the selloff in fixed income. The Bloomberg long treasury index fell 4.3% in the first two weeks, after being down 4.65% for all of 2021.

Macro Update: Conditions Wane Amid Inflation's Gain (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: "Inflation's a Feature, Not a Bug"

Well, barring something special to the upside in today's session, US equities look to be finishing the first two weeks of the year in the red. Notably so for the indices sporting significant tech sector exposure.

Good (Global) News Around Covid and The Commodities Setup

From BCA Research's latest commentary on Covid and the overall commodities setup:

"This week, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported ~ 95% of England's population tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19 via infection or vaccination in the week beginning 29 November 2021. Similar results were reported for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This is generally observed in all age cohorts tracked by ONS.

Morning Note and A Technical Dollar and Equities Update (video)

For this morning we'll just update the overnight and morning numbers and then jump to a video I recorded yesterday evening.

The first half takes you into the US dollar weeds a bit, the remainder focuses on equities and general observations around our longer-term thesis. Clients, please hang in till the end if you can 😎.

A Quote For the Times

 From Bloomberg today:  emphasis mine...

"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the central bank should shrink its balance sheet as fast as it can without disrupting financial markets and repeated her backing to a March interest-rate increase.

“The case is very compelling that we remove accommodation,” Mester, who votes on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, said during a Wall Street Journal Live event streamed on Twitter Wednesday."

"“The economy’s in a much stronger place than it was when we started doing the reductions last time.” said Mester, answering a question on how quickly she favored shrinking the balance sheet. “Frankly I would like to reduce it as fast as we can conditional on it not being disruptive to the functioning of the
financial markets.”"

Well, it would sure be nice if they could have it both ways! I.e., quell inflation that they are in no small part responsible for creating, while doing so without piercing financial market bubbles that they are in huge part responsible for creating. 

Now, to be fair, she did say "the functioning of" financial markets. One might stretch and construe that as her referring to, say, the fluidity of the credit markets.

Well... on second thought... No! 

Should markets crack as the Fed tightens, we'll no-doubt see them pivot back to an uber-dovish stance. Question being, simply, how wide will the crack have to get before they step back in? The tougher question being, will indeed they be able to catch what could be a rapidly falling knife (as they did in 2020) the next go-round?

Morning Note: Not Sure the Renter Would Agree!! -- And -- If Only

While we fully expect the rate of inflation to cool a bit over the coming months, we're not there yet. This morning's CPI data, however, while a tad higher than consensus expectations, were (based on initial reaction) a bit better than equity markets had feared.

Morning Note: "What Is Taking Place"

Fed chair J. Powell has the pleasure of appearing before congress today for his reconfirmation hearing. While the gent is notorious for sparking equity market rallies when he has the spotlight, he's no doubt feeling the intensity of its emitting heat as today's topic will be all about inflation.

Morning Note: I'm a Skeptic

Macro expert Grant Williams and hedge fund manager Erik Townsend sat down last week and discussed the present state of global and market affairs.

Macro Update: Strong Market Signals, Good Labor Report and Stuff To Keep An Eye On...

This week's headline read from our own macro index says the economy's prospects continue to improve. Jumping 4 points as our sectors/SP500 ratios (call them market signals) leapfrogged neutral; going straight from negative to positive since our last assessment:

Morning Note: Acknowledging and Hedging Precariousness

Seems like we've been kinda playing (or implying) the "what if?" game herein this week.

Monday:

"As we've made clear, we're not in the business of predicting bear, or bull, markets. We are, however, in the business of measuring and managing risk.

Morning Note: Now, Let's Be Real

Markets freaked out a bit yesterday as they digested the minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting.

The mere mention of purposely shrinking its massive balance sheet while raising its benchmark rate is utter heresy to today's Wall Street, and the street demonstrated accordingly. International markets, by and large, followed in sympathy overnight.

Morning Note: Even then?

A slew of purchasing managers survey results were just released, sending what we'll call mixed (yet still on-balance expansionary) messages about the state of the global economy.

Morning Note: The Weather and the Windfall

In Part 4 of our 2021 year-end message we stated the following with regard to our position in DBA (ag futures ETF):

Morning Note: Are We Looking At Classic Bull Market Conditions?

Interesting start to just another day.

In less than an hour of trading US stocks have been all over the board; up .50%, then negative 0.10%, now up 0.04% (SP500 my proxy).