Positive earnings news from Microsoft and Texas Instruments, along with an apparent feel that the Fed isn't about to go all in against inflation has US stocks -- particularly the ones that have been getting creamed of late -- rallying hard this morning.
While recession risk remains low right here, some leading indicators are pointing to slower growth going forward (and a potentially slower pace of inflation). And when we fold in a hyper-sensitive stock market and some troubling geopolitical developments, clearly, the market (this morning) is anticipating a softer-sounding Jerome Powell later today than a Nasdaq Comp Index down ~14% year-to-date would otherwise suggest.Suffice to say that yet another intraday outsized move is likely, given today's setup.
"S&P 500 Energy companies have slashed capex to 2005 levels, unwinding a massive increase during the 2000s commodity supercycle. Investors are for now rewarding management teams for not ramping up production, but instead focusing on reaping the harvest of high prices."
"...one should have great humility in approaching any of these problems or any of these questions, because the real world, and even just the financial world (that very narrow section of it), is very complex. Any one explanation is not going to fit the full story at a given point in time or for all times.
I think humility is probably the first, the one, thing. When you think you know something that the market doesn't know, be very, very skeptical of yourself."