Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Stock Market Snapshot and the Good and the Bad (for markets) of Gridlock (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

2 comments:

  1. Many many thanks for this great video! Your message is well received. The magic number is 3-4 month lagging period before inflation rolls over. This happened in 2010. If we count the high inflation in June or in July, the month of October is exactly 3-4 month lagging timeframe. Now we might ask ourselves: what happened for the past 4 months? The Fed had front loaded four (4) 75 basis point increases for the past 4 months. That is historically a lot for the economy. December read out of CPI for November 2022 will be much better. For tomorrow, Bloomberg estimates the CPI read out to be:
    1. CPI YoY 7.9% compared to 8.2% prior month
    2. Core CPI YoY 6.5% compared to 6.6% prior month
    3. CPI MoM YoY 0.4% compared to 0.6% prior month (I think this will improve also)
    4. Core CPI MoM 0.6% compared to 0.5% prior month
    WE WILL SEE TOMORROW! Have a great night!

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    Replies
    1. Good stuff Sam! Per this morning's release, forecasting month-to-month inflation these days is a tough task.

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