It (GDP) Is All About AI Capex, Some Data & The Technicals (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Powell Doesn't Disappoint & A Few Thoughts (video)

Attention Clients, please be sure and take this brief one in when you have a few minutes... 

Sidenote: I forgot to mention the following in today's video (related to this morning's rally in equities): 

Non-commercial (speculators) futures traders and leveraged funds have been significantly net-short S&P 500 futures contracts of late... Powell's comments today no doubt spawned some consequential short covering (buying)... Plus, the equity options put/call ratio had spiked notably over the past week... Therefore, as traders exit those puts (as the market moves [up] against them) the dealers (the sellers of those puts) are forced to cover their hedges (shorts) as well.

I.e., today's violent upside rally has likely more than a little to do with these underlying positioning dynamics

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Quotes of the Day: Price vs Value, Short-term vs Long-term, 10-yr Prospects for US equities, yada yada

Think about the following excerpts from Howard Marks's latest memo within the context of yesterday's video.   

Emphasis (highlights) mine...

“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that.”  

--John Stuart Mill

"In the long term, the success of an investment will hinge primarily on whether the buyer was right about the asset’s earning power. However, an asset’s current earning power and opinions regarding its future earning power usually don’t change much from month to month or even year to year. Thus, short-term investment performance is likely to stem mostly from changes in the price investors are willing to pay for the asset. That makes price the dominant consideration for anyone whose principal concern is the short run.

Inflation Prospects, A Succinct Dive Into AI vs Dotcom Phenomena, And the Debt/Deficit Road From Here (video)

 Attention Clients, this is an important one to take in!

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Thinking About These 'Peak' Profit Margins In Light of PPI and Tariffs (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

CPI, Rate Cut Odds, and Things We Just Can't Unsee (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

How To Think About Data Revisions, And About the Past Two Trading Sessions (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

A Brief Respite

Well, it's time once again for my annual visit to Montana to do a little fly fishing with the gentleman, now dear friend, I introduced readers to way back in 2008. My introduction to him inspired a brief essay that turned out to be probably the most-read post over all the years I've been blogging. Which is funny, since it has nothing to do -- directly -- with investing. 

So I'll be out of the office this week from Wednesday on.

15 years after my 2010 preface, absolutely nothing has changed about how I feel about the "work" I've been so blessed to do.

Friday, August 6, 2010

God's Greatest Work

Forgive me, but for some reason (you’ll gather in the first line of the next paragraph) I was feeling unusually sentimental when I wrote the following. Therefore I must warn that the excerpt below from my next, yet to be completed (or edited) book is not what you've come to expect from my commentaries. It's a personal story, one that many would find of very little, if any, relevance to their investments. Others perhaps may find it, in one way or another, metaphoric. So if you normally click the link hoping for something specific to current events, please don’t waste your time on this one. I mean really, please don’t! However if you’re a sentimentalist, a fisherman or a nature lover, then by all means be my guest.

Quick Look at Jobs, Tariff Impact (Ford), and the Charts (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.