PWA 2025 Year-End Letter, Part 3: All Else Is Never Equal

I promised that in Part 3 we would drill down into the economy, and we will... But first, I need to reemphasize that while the data below deserve close attention, the sheer scale of -- and wealth concentration within -- the U.S. stock market demands that it remains a central focus of policymakers...

PWA 2025 Year-End Letter, Part 2: Interesting Times!! And A Note On Hedging

We'll begin Part 2 with a few key highlights from our latest internal strategy narrative.

From the Executive Overview:

The PWA Global Macro Core Portfolio is constructed to align with the prevailing macroeconomic setup entering 2026 -- characterized by sustained fiscal expansion, a structurally softer U.S. dollar, stable but elevated inflation, on-the-margin improvement in global manufacturing activity, and shifting geopolitical and supply-chain dynamics. The portfolio emphasizes real-economy exposures, broad-based global equity diversification, and a deliberate mix of inflation-resilient assets, while retaining the flexibility to strategically hedge specific positions or asset classes as conditions warrant.

The portfolio balances four strategic pillars:

Oracle's Shot Across the Bow, and Other Important Stuff (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

PWA 2025 Year-End Letter, Part 1: Not Yet to the Tears Stage

While, indeed, nearly all things live in a perpetual state of change (save I suppose for human (investor) nature; it follows very predictable patterns IMO), the "Essential Rules of Investing" featured in last year's Part 1, and the "essential characteristics" from every Part 1 for several years running hold firm, perpetually.

So here they are:

A Very Quick Look at the Charts, Rate Cut Odds, the Latest Jobs Data, etc. (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Thinking About Next Year (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.