Equity markets (US in particular) recovered intraday yesterday from a notable initial selloff on news out of Washington (Trump comments) that the war is very near over… Of course there is much pushback on that notion from the punditry, and today’s headlines either suggest there’s much more to come, or that this is the final salvo/show-of-strength before talks begin.
The market, as I type, is discounting the latter.
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Dear Clients, this morning's commentary is an important one to take in...
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As I type (7:40am pt), we're experiencing one of those infrequent, but, alas, inevitable risk-off days where virtually all correlations move to one... Meaning, asset classes and individual securities that tend to complement each other from a risk standpoint -- i.e., tend to not always move in the same direction, or, better said, not move for the same reasons -- are, so far this morning, moving in the same direction (down), for the same reason(s).
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US equities are seeing a leg lower today: Dow down 700 points, S&P 500 down 0.80%, and the Nasdaq down 1%.
Headlines say it's the hot Producer Price Index for January, released this morning... The overall market action, however, doesn't really jibe with that sentiment.
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One last blog post for this week... The below jibes with our global infrastructure theme for 2026... Our Mexican equity exposure is seeing quite the lift on this news today... Our other infrastructure plays are trending nicely as well:
The following from Bloomberg this evening jibes with the notion that indeed the recent rally in precious metals owes itself, to some degree, to the proverbial safety trade — as I suggested in Wednesday's video.
FYI email recipients, per the intro, recorded this last evening
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“The US economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation and the Fed’s recent monetary policy. However, as usual, we remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards - including from complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices.”
As I've expressed of late, there's some cause to be bullish -- for the first half of this year in particular... But, then again, as I've also stressed, hedging is more than warranted right here as well -- particularly, since, per the following, investors are largely not doing so.
Bloomberg's Ed Harrison is, as usual, making sense this morning:Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
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