Tuesday, January 26, 2010

My Market Prediction

Robert Prechter, "the man who predicted the 1987 market crash", in a CNBC interview during the noon hour (pac time) predicted that we're in for "at least another large wave down". Sue Herrera, as I type, credits his comments for wiping out today's gains.

Just for fun I went to CXO Advisory Group's Guru Grades website and checked out Mr. Prechter's record back to January of 2003. The following are his comments followed by the ensuing 254 day move in the S&P 500:

1/30/03: "the worst part of the decline is somewhere just ahead of us": +34.5%
6/30/03: "the Dow is currently headed down. Ultimate target: at least below 4,000": +16.4%
5/11/04: "a stock market crash began Thursday": +5.3%
10/20/05: "Expect the market to develop into a crash, with panic increasing into Halloween and then culminating within hours": +16.9%
10/28/08: "We look forward to the point when we will put our cash bact to work in the investment markets, but that day has not arrived yet": +10.2%
3/4/09: "Some measures of investor pessimism have reached extreme levels, suggesting the decline has reached its latter stages. But it's not over yet": +43.2% (126 days)
4/2/09: "based on our projections, the bear market is more than halfway done in time. It isn't less than halfway done in price however, as the steepest portions of the decline lie ahead: +26.7% (126 days)

There were a couple more recent comments, but as you might guess, they were very bearish and the subsequent days showed gains for the S&P. There is a mysterious gap between '05 and '08, although I would imagine he was nothing but bearish then as well. And of course, beginning in October of '07, he'd have been very right for a good year and a half.

So there's no doubt he predicted the '87 crash, and although it wasn't documented in my source, I'm sure he guessed the last one as well. And make no mistake; this guy will accurately predict every bear market to come. He'll just continue to miss all the bull markets I guess...

As for yours truly, I almost never make predictions, but I have been doing my own painstaking research the past few months and I've come to a very important conclusion. So just this once I'm going to stick my neck out and give you my forecast, based on my exhaustive scientific study.

The market will go down, then up, then down, then up, then down again, then up again. And while my research indicates that it's impossible to predict the timing, it tells me that this phenomenon will continue literally for decades to come.

So prepare yourselves :)

Take care,


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