Thursday, December 22, 2011

A Sure-Fire Strategy (for suckers)

Heard a commercial for on the way in this morning... Subscribe to their service and they promise a 90% success rate... Amazing! So I'm thinking I should buy in and follow their strategy on behalf of our clients' portfolios... I mean they wouldn't pay for the radio ads and charge for their service if they weren't 100% confident they'll be right 90% of the time... Right?

Well umm, wait a minute... Why would they pay for the ads and sell their strategy if they were indeed certain it'll work going forward? I mean wouldn't they just make zillions for themselves using their own strategy? Or are they already filthy rich and care deeply for the suffering 99%? But if that were the case, wouldn't they just give it away?

And if everyone bought in, who'd sit on the other side of the trade? I mean if it's time to buy Company A, and everyone knew it, who'd we buy it from? Obviously no Company A shareholders would sell when says buy... Right?

The moral of today's message; you can't time the market... And even if you could, you'd take your strategy to your grave... And if you buy the sure-fire strategy, you're a sucker...

I.e., remember, every transaction requires two individuals possessing opposing opinions...

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