Tuesday, July 16, 2013

I hope I'm wrong...

Bernanke tested the water a few weeks ago and found that it was far too cold to go a swimming. Since then he has told the markets what they wanted to hear: That there'll be no diving of bond prices---that is, there'll be no dousing QE into the cold water---just yet.

You see the financial markets literally own a majority in the Fed. We knew that to be the case under Greenspan, and my how we know it under Bernanke---as we witnessed shortly after CNBC'S Jim Cramer's "they know nothing" tirade. The Fed Chairman knows that if at anytime during his next two days of Congressional testimony he lets loose with the merest utterance of taper, that isn't immediately followed by the terms data-dependent and accommodative, the Dow will respond with a 200 point SAY WHAT!?! And the 10 year treasury will chime in with a 2.9% COME AGAIN!?! Which would guarantee placatory followups from every Fed Governor (even the hawks) at every lunch crowd they address for weeks to come.

So rest easy, fair trader, no worries this week (not Fed induced anyway).

As for you, staid investor, while you don't relish triple-digit declines anymore than traders do, the absolute best thing for you (as I've illustrated ad nauseam of late: here's one, here's another, and another) would be for Bernanke and company to step aside and incite another (although unattended) Cramer tantrum and a healthy pullback in asset prices.

But, alas, I don't see that happening this week. I truly hope I'm wrong...

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