Monday, September 26, 2016

Who's winning the debate?

So my wife is babysitting grand kids tonight, and we want to watch the big event together. So we're recording it. And I'm working.

I'm looking at no news feeds, but I'm tracking the Mexican Peso. Yep, that -- for obvious reasons -- is what to watch to determine who's "winning" the debate.

Here's a chart showing the active peso futures contract (white line) along with "The Real Clear Politics 2016 Presidential Poll Average Value for Trump" (yellow line) for the past six months:

Yep, and of course, the peso and Mr. Trump's odds tend to correlate quite negatively.

Here's the peso since tonight's debate began:

Again, without watching, I can tell you for certain that -- with 15 minutes to go -- currency traders are giving Mrs. Clinton the W for this evening.

No comments:

Post a Comment