Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Get Ready for the 1% One-Day Plunge!

It's been an unusually long-time since the market took a 1% one-day hit. Here's Bespoke Investment Group:
The lack of a 1% decline through Monday is notable for the fact that it has now been 80 trading days since the S&P 500 last saw a one-day decline of 1%+.
So, when the S&P sees a one-day 20+ point decline (-200ish on the Dow), we'll try and resist the temptation to blame this or that -- it is normal phenomena. What's abnormal is the fact that we've gone this long without one:
  ...the current streak represents the first 80+ trading day streak without a 1% decline since 2006, and before that you have to go back to 1995 to find the next one. 
And when it happens we won't panic (we never do anyway), for, historically-speaking, they've not -- when ending a long streak without one -- been harbingers of bad things to come:
Once the 1%+ down day finally comes and ends the streak, investors have used it as an opportunity to reload as the average one week, one month, and three month returns are better than the average for all periods since 1928. 

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