Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Aha! Well, maybe... maybe not..

While, for three+ decades, I've been preaching to investors that financial markets are the definition of uncertain, that they should never take anything for granted, and that they are to shun all gurus like the plague, there are still moments where I find myself scratching my head when the market doesn't move like I might've guessed.

The past few days would be an example.

You see, December is historically the best month of the year -- and it's been extra good during years that correlate closely to 2017. Throw in what we believe to be a decidedly bullish macro setup and you'd think this would indeed be a December to remember (in a good way). Well, there's been anything but a rush to buy stocks as the best month of the year, during a bull market no less, has left the gates. 

So what are short-term traders thinking? Well, of course I don't know, but there is something interesting in the seasonality charts.

Here's Bespoke explaining, and illustrating, how the Decembers of the past 30+ years tended to shake out:     click to enlarge... emphasis mine... green line represents the present bull market...

And here's me zeroing in on where today falls on their chart next to my chart of the present month so far:

So, are short-term players trading on short-term seasonality? While of course it makes no difference to you and me -- us deeper-thinking long-term investors -- they very well could be...

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