Stats of the Day: Small Business Attitudes And Present Recession Risk

Small businesses employ 2/3rds of the U.S. workforce. Hence, the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is one of the 79 inputs to our macro model.

Here's this morning's release:   click to enlarge...


Here's our chart (red shaded areas are recessions):   click to enlarge...



The PWA Index this week scored a +69.62, with 73% of inputs positive, 4% negative and 23% neutral. Present odds of recession (generally what you need for a true bear market in stocks) are very low.