Sunday, May 13, 2018

Better Book Your Room Now!

I read somewhere that there's presently a bull market in recession predictions. That is, there are these days a lot of folks, some credentialed, some not, desirous of making names for themselves by calling the next great downturn. 

Now, make no mistake, I'm not complaining; in fact I love it! Dissenting opinions make a market (buyers and sellers), and, for you hopeful bulls out there, stocks tend to fair far better when folks anticipate far worse. 

As John Templeton put it:
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."
As for us here at PWA, we'll be more than happy to join the calamity chorus -- although we'll only point to probabilities supported by data, as opposed to making a prediction -- but only when conditions call for it. 

Speaking of conditions, as you might imagine, folks tend not to splurge whilst they fear (as they typically do amid looming recession conditions) for their financial futures. Therefore, the fact that 2018 is on record pace in hotel occupancy rates (as of the week of April 30 - May 6) suggests that fame will have to wait for today's determined doomsayers.    

click to enlarge...

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