Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Stat of the Day: Yep, More Jobs Than Workers

In this week's message (posted yesterday) we suggested that last Friday's weaker than anticipated jobs number may have had more to do with a lack of workers than it did a lack of jobs:
"The 164k new jobs number was still fine and I suspect reflects an historically low labor pool more than it does a lack of job openings. In fact – while some pause among employers related to trade risks (as cited in the ISMs) could be a factor – the rate of weekly jobless claims (45-year low and record number of weeks below 300k) and the actual job openings number in the JOLTS report (which suggests that the LFP decline is more about new retirees than it is wannabe workers giving up) firmly supports the low labor pool thesis." 
Here's from Bloomberg's highlight of this morning's release of that JOLTS (Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey) report:    emphasis mine...

Released On 5/8/2018 10:00:00 AM For Mar, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Job Openings6.052 M6.078 M6.100 M6.000 M to 6.200 M6.550 M

Openings in this report have been well ahead of hirings suggesting that there are more jobs than workers.

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