Thursday, February 14, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

Dow and S&P futures this morning went from nicely positive to flat on higher than expected weekly jobless claims and lower than expected m/m PPI, then completely rolled over on hugely worse than expected December retail sales.

The Dow contract went from up 90 to down 130 (as I type). 

Ironically, as it relates to what's been driving the equity market these days, this -- regardless of the immediate negative reaction -- is unambiguously good news: It confirms that the Fed was justified in its about face (no rate increases for the foreseeable future), and sends a strong signal to Washington that, yes, even the U.S. economy is in no way immune to the immense uncertainty that comes with the threat of a protracted global trade war (i.e., more incentive to come to a deal with China).

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