Tuesday, April 2, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

U.S. futures are flat this morning after trading lower most of last night. Treasuries were notably higher (yields lower) overnight, but they’re coming back a bit this morning.

Durable goods orders beat expectations, but they’re still down (-1.6%), now for the third straight month. While the global data is improving at the margin, we’re looking at anything but a robust economy at present. The PWA Index picked up a few points this week, but the gain came entirely from the financial markets subindex. The economic subindex gave up several points and reads barely in the positive. The financial stress subindex continues to paint a sanguine picture; nothing remotely like the signals sent leading into the past two recessions.

Asian markets hung in there overnight and Europe is up across the board this morning. Interestingly, the pound is getting pounded but the FTSE 100 is up 1%. Lots of Brexit headlines to come this week.

The market offers plenty to trade on going forward; trade talks, Brexit and key data releases. The technicals point to an upside bias, but, given the present headline risk, notable downside is absolutely in the cards.

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