Wednesday, April 10, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

Equity futures are pointing to a slightly higher open this morning. Yesterday's selloff was all about uncertainty over the present state of global general conditions, exacerbated by the U.S. proposing tariffs on $11 billion worth of European goods.

In the very near-term, barring any additional protectionist-leaning announcements (re; Europe or the ongoing talks with China), the focus will shift to US inflation data (today), the ECB meeting (today), Fed minutes (today), Brexit extension negotiations (today) and earnings announcements (particularly the big banks reporting on Friday).

The character of the trading leading into yesterday had been very bullish; I don’t suspect that yesterday’s hiccup did much to thwart that near-term momentum. Although any negative surprises vis-à-vis the above could produce new headwinds.

Analyst sentiment around corporate earnings, per the rate of upgrades vs downgrades of late, is notably negative coming into this reporting season. Ironically, that’s bullish for the market; as such low bars tend to lead to unusually high beat rates which tend to lead to higher stock prices in the aggregate.

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