Tuesday, May 7, 2019

This Afternoon's Log Entry

After suffering a 600-pt decline the Dow rallied back to close down 470 points in today’s session. The late-day buying has carried through a bit into the after-hours session.

The across-the-board nature of today's selloff, the decent volume (15% above the 20-day average), and a 25% move in the VIX (volatility index) says that perhaps some of those complacent players (that I’ve been pointing to of late) are waking from their slumber.

As I said last evening, in the grander scheme of things, this is good.

Bottom line: Equities will not move sustainably higher amid the palpable ongoing threat of tariff wars with our key trading partners (China now, potentially the EU to come). Thus, the economic importance of the equity market (as it reflects as well as influences economic conditions), not to mention its political importance (virtually impossible to win reelection amid a recession and a bear market in stocks), means that within its movements lie the ultimate incentive to come to friendlier terms with those whom we do the most business with.

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