Monday, July 1, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry

7/1/19 Monday

As expected, futures are rallying hard into the open this morning. Beyond this morning’s spike, and with trade-war-escalation off the table for the moment, the market is set to trade on data releases: Clearly, the trade for the moment is bad-news-is-good-news and vice versa. I.e., weak data releases that support the notion of a Fed cut in July will see stocks higher, strong data, lessening the odds of a cut, will see stock lower -- that is, until we dive into earning’s season, which is right around the corner. At that point the market gets messy, as I suspect we’ll see a good amount of whipsawing as companies express caution going forward (no relief on existing tariffs) against the tone of the data as they’re released.

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