From a breadth perspective, however, the day scored definitely bearish, at least for the S&P 500; it saw 6 losers for every 1 gainer. For the Nasdaq it was just under 3 losers for every gainer.
Moving on to macro:
Ben Melkman, CEO and founder of Light Sky Macro is, by those in the know, considered one of today's great macro minds.
Here's what he had to say in a July 2nd RealVision interview:
"Clearly a lot of slack has opened up in the economy, the largest unemployment since the 1920s. And what I firmly believe is, is that that's going to be the case in the near term, irrespective of whether we get a second wave or not.
We're not going back to 4% unemployment. For those that think that this is a super-V (he's referring to V-shaped economic recovery) and the virus was some kind of momentary blip and we're going straight back to where we were a year ago -- it's just not how the world economy works.
And even if there is no second wave, even if we've seen the worst of the virus behind us, we've had a 12-year expansion, and it always takes a shock to begin a recession, and even if this was just that catalyst shock -- and we don't get any more negative effects, which, at the moment doesn't seem likely, seems we will get more negative effects -- I'm sure that 12 years into an expansion companies will use this as an opportunity to more permanently right-size their bloated workforces, etc."While the list of examples supporting Ben's last sentence is many these days, here's one from today's headlines:
"Levi’s sales fall 62% in second quarter, to cut 15% of corporate workforce"I think what today's bullish traders are missing -- as Ben alluded to -- is an appreciation for the fact that we've just concluded the longest bull market/economic expansion in history. The inevitable accumulated excesses of such a phenomenon simply can't be purged over the course of a few short months. And, in stock market terms, the notion that one swift 3-week decline fully discounts a purging process that, frankly, has barely just begun, well, I'll just say that history offers zero support for such a notion...
Thanks for reading!