Friday, March 25, 2022

Morning Note: No More Waiting on the World to Change (and a little music )

Super quick note this morning (economic update up next).

So, I've dared herein of late utter those famously-considered-ill-conceived four words when it comes to investing "it's different this time." But, you know, while, sure, human nature seems to never change, over many decades it evolves (or perhaps [in a very protracted manner] cycles) through patterns that ultimately inflect into societal sea changes that indeed alter the structural investment landscape and, therefore, virtually demand a re-thinking of what we think we know about asset class relationships, correlations and so on.  

Economist and deep-thinker Jens Nordvig nailed it yesterday with a tweet:

"This cycle is different, and it is appropriate to be very open-minded.
Bonds are behaving so differently, commodities are behaving so differently, and FX is in the middle of a major shift too. 

I will leave it at that. 

Be open-minded."

Speaking of being open-minded, recall from yesterday's note we titled "Minds Wide Open:"

"...bottom line, rather than being bulls or bears, we remain committed to keeping our minds wide open to all possibilities -- and adjusting accordingly as the landscape shifts..."

Asian equities were mixed overnight, with half of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe's leaning green so far this morning, with 11 of the 19 bourses we follow trading higher as I type.

US stocks are mixed to start the session: Dow up 48 points (0.14%), SPX up 0.02%, SPX Equal Weight up 0.03%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.17%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.23%, Russell 2000 down 0.26%.

The VIX sits at 21.91, up 1.11%.

Oil futures are down 1.42%, gold's down 0.72%, silver's down 0.80%, copper futures are down 0.57% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.41%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.09%.

Among our 37 core positions (excluding cash and short-term bond ETF), 17 -- led by Paramount Global, Latin American equities, oil services stocks, bank stocks and base metals futures -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by solar stocks, MP (rare earth miner), carbon credits, emerging market equities, South Korean equities and uranium miners.

So, per the above, no more waiting. Change (to, in investment terms, account for) is here:

"When you trust your television what you get is what you got, cause when they own the information oh they can bend it all they want."

--John Maher

Have a great day!

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