Sunday, April 9, 2023

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Note: Early in the presentation I said 18% of our "positions" are scoring negative... I meant to say "inputs."  I.e., I want to be sure and distinguish that I was referring to inputs (data) to our general conditions index (denoting high recession risk), as opposed to investment positions we're presently holding...

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


  1. Marty: I am 100% agree with you! The market seems to Know No Fear! Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley gives this prediction:
    1. Bull Case: Earnings $251, 16.7X Multiple, Price Target 4200 S&P, 2.2% Upside from Now
    2. Base Case: Earnings $241, 16.1X Multiple, Price Target 3900 S&P, -5.1% Downside from Now
    3. Bear Case: Earnings $230, 15.3X Multiple, Price Target 3500 S&P, -14.8% Downside from Now

    It seems like upside is limited like you said, but downside is substantial. I think JPM earning this Friday will set the downside trend.

    Thanks a lot for dedicating your Sunday and posting this great video!

    1. Hey Sam! Always my pleasure, and always appreciate your feedback. Hope all's well