Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Mid Week Snapshot: Stocks, the Dollar, Gold and Sentiment (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.


  1. Thanks Marty!
    I always enjoy watching these weekly updates.

    The people that I know (especially the guy on mad money) told his viewers that the Bear Market is over and the Bulls have won. I watched a short clip and quickly turned it off and thought to myself that the guy absolutely made no sense. How could people listen to him?

    I agree that the last leg of the Bear Market is tricky and requires a lot of patience. It has been an exhausting process since March 2022 when the the Fed raised interest rates. I believe that there are still a lot of money park in the money market, in bonds, and in cash. If we were to have a Bull Market, all this money would flow back in and we would start a new cycle of the Bull Market. (Note: the current market has very low volume and continues to trade sideway).

    1. My pleasure Sam!

      Yeah, it's always interesting to hear a guy like Cramer profess as if he truly knows the future... Honestly, I stopped watching CNBC many years ago, although I'm not saying there's no value there, just that, in my position, it's better to actually do the work myself, study history, the data, the technicals, etc., and, with of course Nick's input, determine for ourselves the degree to which overall general conditions allow us to take on risk...

      Now, that said, we also consider the research of others...
      Those others, by the way, seldom, if ever, show up on CNBC... The are typically research firms, and/or economists, whom we pay not-small sums for insight into their work and their conclusions... By the way, our top 3 research partners all happen to, as we do, forecast recession in the relatively near future...

      Back to the likes of Kramer, here's from a Bloomberg article today:

      "...every US recession since 1929 suggests it’s a question of when, not if, the stock market takes a tumble. On no occasion in almost 100 years did equities avoid falling to a new trough after the economy entered a contraction. Markets only found a bottom nine months after a recession began, on average, data compiled by Bloomberg News show."

      This of course we are already fully aware of, as you've seen in my commentary, and illustrations...

      Who knows? Perhaps a hundred years of history that suggests, if there's a recession, the bottom is NOT in will be proven wrong this time around... But, history says, it would be somewhat foolhardy to bet on it...

      As for Kramer, with all due respect, and as you probably already know, his record on forecasting the market (particularly at big turns) is far less than stellar... But, hey, he could be spot on this time around...