This from BCA Research yesterday --
"The question going forward is whether US economic resilience will continue. The latest employment data from the JOLTS survey and ADP release suggest that labor market conditions are easing amid the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. This trend will probably continue over the coming year and we believe that a recession is likely in 2024."
-- essentially jibes with our message in Tuesday evening's video.
And the following (continuation from the above) --
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Here are some key highlights from this month's messaging herein, followed by our usual morning lineup:
As you've no doubt noticed if you've been perusing our weekly results updates, 2023 results, across sectors, across regions, across commodities, and even across fixed income, are -- in direction or to degree -- literally all over the place... Suffice to say that while returns from certain areas have been downright impressive, clearly, all boats are not rising with the tide -- not remotely.
Per the below, the concentration in the US equity market is, let's say, historic:
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Thinking via my keyboard this morning, pondering markets and the inherent myopia that inflicts all things media, and, by extension, those who, therefore, fuss and fret over every headline, every utterance of Jerome Powell and every pundit's interpretation of every data release -- typically clinging to those assessments that satisfy their present portfolio positioning and/or their emotional and, alas, political biases -- I'm no less struck, and humbled, by it all than I was on my very first day, August 1, 1984.
Kicking off what will be another shortened week here on the blog (no posts this Thursday and Friday), we'll take a quick look at how our PWA Index scored for last week, followed by your sector, region and asset class update, then the usual morning stuff.
Well, it's that time of year again where I go on a brief Montana fishing excursion with my good friend who inspired an essay (featured below) years ago that a number of clients told me was their all-time favorite... Being that it has absolutely nothing to do with investing, says... well, huh, I'm not sure what it says 🤔.
So, this'll be it for me on the blog this week.
Before we get to the sentimental stuff -- and, please, don't feel obliged to read if you're in no sentimental mood -- here's a quick video technical update on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Apple (and some not so rosy stuff on the state of the economy), followed by your weekly sector, region and asset class results update.
Have a great week!
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Yesterday morning's live BCA Research discussion featured a back and forth that I thought pretty well captured what are legitimate bullish and bearish, policy-centric, economic narratives.
I'll paraphrase:
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Here's the intro to our latest internal report on our own Equity Market Conditions Index:
7/31/2023 PWA EQUITY MARKET CONDITIONS (EMCI) INDEX: -41.67 (+16.66 from 6/30/2023)
SP500 past 30 days, +3.11%:
SP500 Equal Weight past 30 days, +3.36%:
Despite the overall deterioration of equity market conditions recorded in our June report, stocks continued their 2023 rally through July.As we enter August, conditions have improved by 16 points... However, at -42, we're still looking at a notably poor go-forward setup for US equities.
Here are some key highlights from our recent messaging herein:
"Invariably, investors who disregard where they stand in cycles are bound to suffer serious consequences."
--Howard Marks
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