Monday, August 28, 2023

Morning Note: "Normal" This Ain't -- And -- Your Weekly Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update

As you've no doubt noticed if you've been perusing our weekly results updates, 2023 results, across sectors, across regions, across commodities, and even across fixed income, are -- in direction or to degree -- literally all over the place... Suffice to say that while returns from certain areas have been downright impressive, clearly, all boats are not rising with the tide -- not remotely.

Per the below, the concentration in the US equity market is, let's say, historic:

So, a "normal" market, this year's ain't! Imagine what a little reversion to the mean, or a return to normalcy, might look like... And, make no mistake, you can view that from a bearish or a bullish perspective... General conditions have us remaining a bit cautious right here.

Stay tuned...

Asian stocks rallied overnight, with 15 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's green across the board so far this morning, with all 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

US equity averages are higher to start the session: Dow by 245 points (0.71%), SP500 up 0.58%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.96%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.52%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.63%, Russell 2000 up 1.40%.

As for Friday’s session, US equity averages closed higher: Dow up 0.7%, SP500 up 0.7%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.9%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.9%, Russell 2000 up 0.4%.

This morning the VIX sits at 15.58, down 0.45%.

Oil futures are up 0.60%, nat gas futures are up 3.99%, gold's up 0.19%, silver's up 0.05%, copper futures are up 0.31% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.32%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up 0.05%.

Among our 34 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and money market funds), 30 -- led by MP Materials, VNM (Vietnam equities), Range Resources, Albemarle and XME (base metals miners) -- are in the green so far this morning... The losers are JNJ, EWZ (Brazil equities), DBB (base metals futures) and LEMB (local currency emerging mkt bonds).

"Differentiate between a narrative and a theme... Narratives are something that the market consensus generally believes, themes are the things that are actually driving things in the background."

--Marvin Barth

Have a great day!

No comments:

Post a Comment