Monday, February 5, 2024

Morning Note: Tops are Choppy -- And Your Weekly Results Update

So, if you're paying attention to the markets, and you have feelings about what you're hearing and seeing, I strongly encourage you to take in our twice per week videos! While, granted, I can get overly technical, I promise, you will always get the main message.

Here's from this weekend's (recorded Friday):

"I don't mean to sound like such a skeptic folks, I just want to articulate what tops look like; tops in the economy, tops in the markets, and so on... Tops are difficult, they are choppy, they can take a long time... Once they give up the ghost they can be quite dramatic to the downside... What do they say? "They take the escalator up and the elevator down."  And I'm not promising that there is an elevator down scenario in our near-term future, I'm just saying that the risk remains very high, and there's nothing about today's action that changes that." 
In fact, per the video, the character of "today's action (Friday's)" actually confirms that the risk remains high.

Here's your weekly sector, region and asset class update:

Asian equities were mostly down overnight, with 14 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe is mixed so far this morning, with 9 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

US equity averages are down to start the session: Dow by 151 points (0.39%), SP500 down 0.19%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.71%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.16%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.22%, Russell 2000 down 1.44%.

This morning the VIX sits at 13.93.

Oil futures are down 0.97%, nat gas futures are down 0.43%, gold's down 0.80%, silver's down 1.23%, copper futures are down 1.30% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.23%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.44%.

Among our 33 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and money market funds), 4 -- XLV (healthcare stocks), XLK (tech stocks), DEM (emerging mkt equities), VWO (emerging mkt equities) -- are in the green so far this morning... The losers are being led lower by URNM (uranium miners), XME (base metals miners), XLB (materials stocks), Dutch Bros and XLRE (REITs).

"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"
--Jesse Livermore

Have a great day!

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