What Fundamental Dynamics Presently Allow (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Side Note on Nvidia, Goldilocks Priced In, And Will the Fed Circumvent Santa? (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Inflation Reality, Homebuilders Have Feelings, Encouraging Earnings Calls and The Next Bull Market Will Be (globally) Different

Inflation I suppose is a different thing to different people...

At the end of the day, or, let’s say, in reality, while politicians, and financial markets, may celebrate a calming of inflation’s go-forward rate-of-change (purple line), consumers – particularly those in the lower 40% of income earners – continue to suffer (some, devastatingly) from inflation’s 4-year cumulative effect (blue line). 

Priced For Perfection (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Stay On Your Toes

Attention Clients, this is an important post to take in... Thanks for reading!

The following are excerpts from the latest entries to our internal market log.

In summary.

1. Since the election:

• 6 of the US major equity sectors are up, 5 are down.
• The US is the only major regional equity market in the green... The others featured are notably in the red.
• Among the major industrial commodities we track, all have sold off significantly, save for natural gas.
• Among the ag commodities we track, 8 are up, 6 are down.
• US Treasuries have taken quite the hit (as interest rates popped higher), Investment grade corporate bonds are flat, junk bonds are up slightly.

2. Foreign equities are all-time cheap relative to the US.

3. US equities are, by themselves, at (or near) all-time expensive valuations.

3. Zip Recruiter warns about the state of the labor market and, therefore, the economy.

4. Me (via an email with a friend) on the prospects for commodities going forward, the nat'l debt, and the history of the early stages of world-changing technologies.

Bottom line, the rip-roaring rally of the past week has been the definition of concentrated. I.e., not so great for balanced portfolios that diversify across asset classes, sectors and regions... But, make no mistake, the setup, as we ultimately move into the next cycle, offers many historically-attractive opportunities for macro-centric portfolios.

Read on for context.

Higher Dollar Headwind, Equities and Policy Prospects, Today vs 2016 and "Hopes & Dreams" Priced In (video)

Dear Clients, please be sure and give this one a watch/listen when you have a few minutes.

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

The Underlying Dynamics of the Moment (video)

Of course this should go without saying, but given the season I'm compelled to remind clients that politics have unequivocally zero influence on our asset allocation decisions (and I'm certain you'd have it no other way)... Policy, on the other hand, is indeed something we need be cognizant of with regard to its longer-term economic and market (global as well as domestic) ramifications.

Clients, be sure and take a few minutes when you can and take this one in.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

AI Spending Mania!, Jobs, Materials, Valuations, Stock Prices vs Fundamentals, Flows, etc. (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.