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Dear Clients, this is one to watch! 😎
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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.
11/20/2025
Equities are rallying hard this morning on NVDA’s positive report, although off of earlier highs… The delayed Sept jobs data was released this morning, which showed a surprise 119k payroll increase, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, LFP unchanged… AHE was up .2%, 3.8% y/o/y (a little soft), workweek flat at 34.2 hours… July and August were revised down by 33k jobs.. August actually now shows a job loss of 4.4k…
Sharing my internal log entry from last Friday...
11/14/2025
Musing briefly on the dynamics that presently underpin the US equity market.
For starters, suffice to say that the stock market is bigly essential to the overall health of the US economy… The K-shaped nature of present conditions demands that the wealth effect remains alive and well if the expansion is to continue going forward.
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Dear Clients, this is a particularly important commentary to take in (start to finish) when you have a few minutes!
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As I forever study market and economic history (or history in general), I never cease to be amazed at how, while technology has evolved beyond our wildest dreams, human nature has clearly not evolved by a single iota.
In other words:
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Looking at the market action today: US stocks up -- while 45% of SP500 members, same for the Nasdaq, are in the red -- I'm inspired to update our breadth-trend charts for you.
First up is the SP500 (white) versus the SP500 Equal Weight (green).
SP500 is historically (these days) dominated by a small handful of stocks, while the SP500 Equal Weight gives each member equal weighting... I.e., per the below, all boats are not rising with the tide of late:
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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.
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Markets rebounded sharply on Monday, as Friday’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods was, for all intents and purposes, withdrawn over the weekend.
Meanwhile, beyond the noise, and the typical late-cycle market volatility, consumer sentiment continues to wane.
Here's the latest form the UMich survey on buying conditions for vehicles, for houses and for large household durables (HT Liz Ann Sonders):
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I featured the following quote -- from who has since become a close friend and valuable resource of the firm -- back in 2020... While we're not necessarily smelling a durable top in the market right here, it feels every bit as timely today:
"In his outstanding, and instructional, book The Second Leg Down, Hari P. Krishnan points to the huge risk that exists when large investors are all "wired" in the same way (the last line should resonate with clients): emphasis mine...
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This intro to the GQG Research article titled “Dotcom on Steroids” very much captures the gist of what I’ve been expressing during client review meetings when the AI topic comes up… Specifically, the areas I bolded:
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"The world economy and financial markets are receiving too much stimulus, which is a policy mistake but one that should help keep the tilt in favor of pro-growth assets for now. Still, selectivity and/or more portfolio insurance is warranted given that risk assets have already enjoyed an extended bull market and exhibit both frothy pricing and lofty earnings expectations. At some point, a shift to an outright defensive positioning will be warranted."
I.e.,
"... investors will need to remain nimble, and to be more restrained in their risk positions than would normally be warranted when global policymakers are providing a green light."
-- Phillip Colmar, MRB Partners Research
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Attention Clients, please be sure and take this brief one in when you have a few minutes...
Sidenote: I forgot to mention the following in today's video (related to this morning's rally in equities):
Non-commercial (speculators) futures traders and leveraged funds have been significantly net-short S&P 500 futures contracts of late... Powell's comments today no doubt spawned some consequential short covering (buying)... Plus, the equity options put/call ratio had spiked notably over the past week... Therefore, as traders exit those puts (as the market moves [up] against them) the dealers (the sellers of those puts) are forced to cover their hedges (shorts) as well.
I.e., today's violent upside rally has likely more than a little to do with these underlying positioning dynamics
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Think about the following excerpts from Howard Marks's latest memo within the context of yesterday's video.
Emphasis (highlights) mine...
“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that.”
--John Stuart Mill
"In the long term, the success of an investment will hinge primarily on whether the buyer was right about the asset’s earning power. However, an asset’s current earning power and opinions regarding its future earning power usually don’t change much from month to month or even year to year. Thus, short-term investment performance is likely to stem mostly from changes in the price investors are willing to pay for the asset. That makes price the dominant consideration for anyone whose principal concern is the short run.
Attention Clients, this is an important one to take in!
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Friday, August 6, 2010
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Dear Clients, this is definitely one to watch!
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Clients, you should find this one interesting, and instructive -- the second half in particular!
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Dear Clients, this is a brief one I'd like all of you to take in when you have a few minutes.
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Clients, please sure to take this one in when you have a few minutes!
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Dear Clients, another important one to take in:
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Dear Clients, this is an important one to take in.
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I found myself, on two separate occasions today, telling clients that while I won't say that this is the most headline-driven market we've ever had to manage through, I will say, that, indeed, it is as headline-driven as any market we've ever had to manage through.
The following from Bloomberg's "Macro Man" Cameron Crise's latest podcast pretty much says it all, at this juncture:
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5/21/2025
Consistent with our view that the recent rise in yields has everything to do with the proposed federal spending package, the 10yr treasury yield just popped to above 4.5%, and the 30-year to 5.01% on news that an agreement was reached to raise the state and local tax deduction to 40%.
Again, fiscal stimulus, and expanding the budget deficit, at this juncture, virtually has to be viewed as inflationary... Like I keep saying, while clearly they sense urgency as economic weakness brews under the surface, pumping the gas before the hard data roll over will likely prove to be yet more problematic for the bond market, and ultimately equities (at these valuations).
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Just a quick follow up to last week's "Curb Your Enthusiasm" post.
Days like these can be dangerous for unsuspecting investors... As, per the below, those who only see the headline prints on the US major averages could be thinking all's well and we're back in business.
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Following up on Wednesday's post where I suggested that the Fed will step in, as aggressively as needed, should the credit market "need" it.
Here's Peter Boockvar suggesting that -- from the horse's mouth -- that's all (or the first) we should expect, at the moment:
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Yet another must-watch for clients!
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FYI: I shot this video Sunday afternoon as equity and commodity futures were tanking, and as treasuries and the yen were rallying... Who knows where markets will be by the time you clients receive the link... In the long-term scheme of things, and for our purposes, it (short-term volatility) makes zero difference... Our goal here (in these video updates) is to simply keep you abreast of our thinking as present conditions play out, and to have those of you who watch this stuff daily gauge your expectations accordingly.
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Another must-watch for clients.
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