Quotes of the Day: On Human Nature

As I forever study market and economic history (or history in general), I never cease to be amazed at how, while technology has evolved beyond our wildest dreams, human nature has clearly not evolved by a single iota.

In other words:

Charts of the Day: Still Harping on Breadth, And a Quick Note on the Fed

I hate to keep harping on stock market breadth, but it's been remarkably stinky of late... Once again, this morning, the headline averages (SP500, Nasdaq, Dow) are seeing green, while the majority of stocks are bleeding red.

Quick Commentary on Breadth, on Fed Odds, etc. (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Charts of the Day: Not-So-Fresh Breadth

Looking at the market action today:  US stocks up -- while 45% of SP500 members, same for the Nasdaq, are in the red -- I'm inspired to update our breadth-trend charts for you.

First up is the SP500 (white) versus the SP500 Equal Weight (green).

SP500 is historically (these days) dominated by a small handful of stocks, while the SP500 Equal Weight gives each member equal weighting... I.e., per the below, all boats are not rising with the tide of late:

An Ambiguous Setup, A Systemic Smell And A Fiscal Put (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Gold Finally Getting Its Comeuppance, And How to Think About Your Portfolio (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Competing Narratives and Hot Potatoes (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Chart of the Day: Meanwhile

Markets rebounded sharply on Monday, as Friday’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods was, for all intents and purposes, withdrawn over the weekend.

Meanwhile, beyond the noise, and the typical late-cycle market volatility, consumer sentiment continues to wane.

Here's the latest form the UMich survey on buying conditions for vehicles, for houses and for large household durables (HT Liz Ann Sonders):

Credit Cracks and Crazy Concentration (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Quote of the Week: "The goal of markets"

I featured the following quote -- from who has since become a close friend and valuable resource of the firm -- back in 2020... While we're not necessarily smelling a durable top in the market right here, it feels every bit as timely today:

"In his outstanding, and instructional, book The Second Leg Down, Hari P. Krishnan points to the huge risk that exists when large investors are all "wired" in the same way (the last line should resonate with clients):   emphasis mine...

Record Highs in Stocks, in Tech Capex, In Mkt Concentration, Amid Across the Board Business and Consumer Angst (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Labor Market Stress, Stubborn Inflation & GOLD! (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.