11/20/2025
Equities are rallying hard this morning on NVDA’s positive report, although off of earlier highs… The delayed Sept jobs data was released this morning, which showed a surprise 119k payroll increase, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, LFP unchanged… AHE was up .2%, 3.8% y/o/y (a little soft), workweek flat at 34.2 hours… July and August were revised down by 33k jobs.. August actually now shows a job loss of 4.4k…
The BLS is not delivering the October data, despite having all they need for the establishment report… The lack of the household survey results is their excuse… They’ll blend it into the November report.
It’ll be interesting to see if equities can hold this rally considering the Sept jobs number essentially reduces odds of a December rate cut.
My view has been that a December cut is essential to the prospects for a strong year-end finish… Crypto is selling off this morning – which has been a decent tell on the short-term direction of equities.
As I type (8:14am), the S&P is notably off the early-morning high.
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Sooner than I expected the S&P has succumbed to, I suspect, the reduced prospects (as of the moment) of a December rate cut… I’m guessing that the withheld October jobs data is notably weak (consistent with layoff announcements, job openings data, warn notices, etc. of late)... If other data confirm this weakness between now and the next jobs report, December rate cut odds (consistent with some Fed commentary yesterday) will likely increase.
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