Weekend Note

For those of you who track markets, and your portfolios, daily, if nothing changes between now and tomorrow's open, look for the equity market to give back a notable chunk of last week's gains (save for equities tied to the energy space).

As I type (9:36am PDT Sunday 4/12), oil is spiking higher/stocks lower in synthetic markets... Gold -- priced in crypto (which allows us to track it during weekends) -- is trading down notably.

The Gold action remains interesting, and counterintuitive to some -- simply put, it's presently trading as a rate-sensitive asset, rather than a safe haven amid crisis... Look for this to change at some point if present geopolitical conditions persist.

While, per the below, we hold positions that ultimately exploit the ramifications of current events, our broad global diversification means -- our year-to-date solid performance notwithstanding -- we don't get a pass on the worst of sessions, particularly when our gold position (which we're hedging against anything major to the downside) exhibits what I described above.

Here's your PWAI update:

Global markets are navigating a significant escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict following President Trump's announcement of a U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply. 

While Monday's open is expected to be volatile, it is important to note that active diplomatic channels remain open — Russia has confirmed its readiness to mediate, and Iran's Foreign Minister is actively seeking dialogue with European counterparts in Berlin, Paris, and London. 

Our portfolio was constructed with precisely this kind of environment in mind: energy and commodity positions stand to benefit directly from the supply shock, inflation-protective holdings buffer against rising input costs, elevated cash reserves provide stability and optionality, and tail hedges are in place through June 30. 

We are monitoring the situation closely, are not making reactive changes into peak uncertainty.

PS: If you're wondering why the lack of video commentary of late, it's partly due to the very volatile nature of current conditions, which, in my opinion, diminishes the value of technical analysis right here... Also I've noticed that the written posts have been seeing hits at a roughly 3 to 1 rate over the videos... I.e., we really want clients taking in these commentaries and, thus, want to deliver them via the most accessible venue.