Morning Note

This headline caught my attention yesterday:

"Iran's President Pezeshkian and Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf are dissatisfied with the manner in which diplomacy is being conducted, particularly the nuclear negotiations, by Abbas Araghchi, and are calling for his dismissal - Iran International, citing two informed sources."

I then said this in our internal chat:

"I woke up this morning thinking that re-escalation is highly likely, imminently, for obvious (headline) reasons... The above however is telling; if true, Iran could be close to rolling over on the enrichment standoff... That would do the trick."

Then we get this today:

"Iran handed new proposal to Pakistani mediators to end the US-Iran war, contents unclear."

While that last headline sorely lacks detail, oil rolled over (down 3% as I type) on its release... Suffice to say that the market sees Iran submitting terms, amid the US's firm stance on uranium enrichment, as potentially significant... Time will tell.

In the meantime, here's your brief PWAI morning rundown... I'll have much more for you on the macro front over the weekend:

Private Wealth Advisors

Morning update — May 1, 2026

As of 11:00 AM ET

S&P 500

+0.54%

Nasdaq 100

+0.78%

Equal Weight

–0.01%

Gold

+0.49%

What's moving markets

Apple lifted the tape

Apple reported strong fiscal Q2 earnings — revenue of $111B, beating estimates, with iPhone sales up 22% year-over-year and forward guidance well above Wall Street expectations. The stock is up roughly 3–5% and is the primary engine behind the Nasdaq's outperformance this morning.

Iran peace proposal sent oil lower

Iran submitted an updated proposal to U.S. mediators via Pakistan this morning, pushing crude oil down nearly 5% — WTI is near $100 and Brent near $107. We view this as a negotiation headline, not a structural breakthrough. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is still in force. We continue to monitor the situation carefully; our energy positions reflect this cautious-but-constructive view.

Manufacturing data: still expanding

The ISM Manufacturing index came in at 52.7 for April — the fourth straight month of expansion, matching March. New orders improved. The caveat: costs remain elevated, with energy and commodity inputs still pricing in the Hormuz disruption. Growth and inflation are moving in opposite directions, which is the environment we've been positioned for.

Breadth worth watching

The S&P 500 Equal Weight index is essentially flat while the headline index is up over half a percent. That gap tells us today's gains are driven by a handful of large technology names rather than broad participation. We don't view this as alarming on a single day, but it's something we monitor as an indicator of the market's underlying health.

Portfolio positioning

Our core portfolio remains well-positioned for today's environment — diversified across U.S. and international equities, with meaningful exposure to gold and real assets as a hedge against ongoing geopolitical and inflation risk. We continue to hold defensive buffers in short-term cash and inflation-linked fixed income. No changes are warranted today.

This note is for informational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please contact your advisor with any questions.